Betting trends in CFB, NFL this week

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Jim McElwain now 11-4 vs. line for CMU after opening win. Chippewas 4-1 vs. number as MAC visitors in 2019. CMU has covered last six in series, won 48-10 last year. Huskies yet to lose two straight vs. spread under Thomas Hammock. Tech edge: CMU, based on team and series trends. 

EASTERN MICHIGAN at BALL STATE

After another road cover in opener (if using 4½), EMU now 22-6-1 last 29 vs. line away from Ypsilanti. Eagles had whipped Ball State three in a row before losing close decision in 2019. Tech edge: EMU, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN

After 0-6-1 close vs. line in 2019, Toledo rocketed out to big win and cover in 2020 opener vs. BGSU. Toledo has also won and covered last three in series. Tech edge: Slight to Toledo, based on series trends.

COLORADO STATE at BOISE STATE

Steve Addazio finally got first win for CSU vs. Wyoming on Thursday. CSU has covered three of last four meetings, Rams also 7-4 last 11 as Mountain West road dogs (0-1 this year). Even after BYU loss, Boise 8-4 vs. line last 12 at home after previous struggles laying points on blue turf. Tech edge: Slight to CSU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Shula Bowl! FAU 2-2 vs. line for Willie Taggart this year but 12-6 last 18 overall vs. line. FIU on 5-11 spread skid since last year (1-2 in 2020). Lane Kiffin absolutely brutalized FIU last three years, routs in each. In fact, only one of last 10 Shula Bowls decided by single digits. Blowout series. Tech edge: FAU, based on team and series trends. 

IOWA at MINNESOTA

Floyd of Rosedale! Iowa has won SU in last five Floyd battles, 3-0-1 vs. spread last four. Kirk Ferentz failed to cover opener at Purdue but was 15-7-1 vs. spread previous 23 as Big Ten visitor. P.J. Fleck has started 0-2 SU and vs. line in 2020 but was 6-2 last eight vs. Big Ten at home before loss to Michigan. Tech edge: Iowa, based on team and series trends. 

EAST CAROLINA at CINCINNATI

Home team has covered last four meetings. This was a real escape for Cincy last year at Greenville, winning 46-43. Bearcats only 4-4 vs. spread last eight at Nippert, and Pirates have surprisingly covered last five as American visitors. Tech edge: Slight to ECU, based on team trends. 

UTAH at UCLA 

Utes have bossed this series lately, winning and covering last four, last three by whopping 138-30 score. Utah has covered six of last eight as Pac-12 visitor. Chip Kelly just 4-9 vs. spread at Rose Bowl since taking over UCLA in 2018. Tech edge: Utah, based on team and series trends.

ARKANSAS at FLORIDA

Razorbacks 6-0 vs. line for Sam Pittman in 2020, though Dan Mullen is 8-1 vs. spread last nine at Swamp with Gators. Teams haven’t met since 2016. Tech edge: Slight to Arkansas, based on recent trends. 

VANDERBILT at KENTUCKY

Derek Mason on 5-13 spread skid, though visitor has covered last three meetings. UK only 3-3 vs. line this year but on 14-7 spread uptick since late 2018. Tech edge: Slight to Kentucky, based on team trends.

TCU at WEST VIRGINIA

After dropping last four vs. line last year at Morgantown, WVU is 3-0-1 vs. spread as host in 2020. Mounties have also won and covered last four vs. TCU. Frogs have covered last three away since late 2019, but Gary Patterson only 5-6 last 11 in once-solid dog role. Tech edge: WVU, based on series trends.

FLORIDA STATE at NC STATE

FSU 2-5 vs. line this year, only 8-17 last 25 vs. spread since late 2018. Wolfpack 5-2 vs. line this year and has covered all three at home, also on 9-2 Over run since mid-2019. NC State had covered three straight in series before last year’s 31-13 Noles win. Tech edge: NC State, based on recent and series trends.

NOTRE DAME at BOSTON COLLEGE

BC 4-1 as dog this year for Jeff Hafley, 18-6-1 since 2017 in role including under Steve Addazio. Though Eagles were ripped last two meetings vs. ND in 2017 and ’19, they are historically tough on Irish, had covered previous three and five of six meetings. Domers only 3-3 last six as visiting chalk (1-1 this year). Tech edge: BC, based on team trends. 

WAKE FOREST at NORTH CAROLINA

Deacons good value this season, have covered last four and five of last six in 2020, and 2-0 as dogs. Tech edge: Wake Forest, based on recent trends.

TEXAS STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Texas State skidding, double-digit losses last five in 2020 (though only 2-3 vs. line in those), also Under 12-6 dating to early 2019. GSU Under 8-1 last nine since late 2019. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends.

PITTSBURGH at GEORGIA TECH

Panthers have won and covered last two vs. GT. Jackets 6-12-1 vs. line for Geoff Collins since last year. Tech edge: Pitt, based on recent trends.

MIAMI at VIRGINIA TECH

Hokies tough lately at home, have won and covered six of last seven at Blacksburg, even counting Liberty loss. Hurricanes have dropped last four vs. spread in 2020, 0-1 as dogs this year after 2-0 in role last year. Tech edge: Virginia Tech, based on recent trends.

TEMPLE at UCF

Owls are 3-6 vs. spread away from home for Rod Carey since 2019, also lost and failed to cover last three vs. UCF. Knights on 5-11 spread skid since early 2019. Tech edge: Slight to UCF, based on recent series trends. 

OHIO STATE at MARYLAND

Mike Locksley has covered last two in 2020 but still just 5-8 last 13 vs. spread since early last year with Terps. OSU has won all six SU since Terps entered Big Ten, and Buckeyes have scored 49 or more in all of those games, with each having gone Over as well. Ryan Day 5-1 vs. points as Big Ten visitor since last year. Tech edge: OSU and Over, based on team and series trends. 

WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN

Jim Harbaugh 7-2 last nine as Ann Arbor Big Ten chalk even after loss to MSU. Home team has won last four meetings, covering three. If Badgers are dogs, note 9-5 spread mark for Paul Chryst in role with Wisconsin. Tech edge: Slight to Michigan, based on series home trends.

INDIANA at MICHIGAN STATE

Spartans no covers last seven as Big Ten hosts. Hoosiers on 10-3 spread run since early 2019. Tech edge: Indiana, based on team trends. 

NORTHWESTERN at PURDUE

Pat Fitzgerald 17-3 vs. line last 20 as Big Ten visitor. Cats had won five straight from Purdue before close 24-22 home loss last year. Jeff Brohm on 8-2 spread uptick since mid-2019. Tech edge: Northwestern, based on extended trends. 

ILLINOIS at RUTGERS

Lovie Smith is 3-1 SU and vs. points against Rutgers last four years, but all pre-Greg Schiano. (Tempted to dismiss Scarlet Knights’ marks pre-Schiano.) Smith on 11-6 Under run, three of last four in this series Under as well. Tech edge: Slight to Under, based on totals trends. 

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at MARSHALL

Herd 6-0 SU, 4-2 vs. line in 2020, but tough Rick Stockstill has covered four of last five this season, including last four as dog. Blue Raiders have also won and covered last two meetings. Tech edge: MTSU, based on recent trends. 

SOUTH FLORIDA at HOUSTON

USF one of the more unimpressive 4-3 spread teams in country. Bulls 1-6 SU for Jeff Scott, 5-14 SU since last year, though they are 6-3 vs. spread away since last season. Dana Holgorsen, however, just 9-10 vs. spread since taking over the Cougars in 2019. Houston only 2-6 vs. spread at TDECU Stadium for Holgorsen, not counting NRG game vs. WSU last year. Tech edge: USF, based on team trends. 

CAL at ARIZONA STATE

Cal 5-2 as dog for Justin Wilcox last year, now 16-7 as dog since 2017. Herm Edwards just 3-7 vs. line last 10 at Tempe, though he did win at Berkeley last year. Tech edge: Cal, based on team trends.

USC at ARIZONA

Kevin Sumlin 3-9 vs. line last year, 0-4 vs. spread as Pac-12 host. USC has won seven straight in series, covering last four. Tech edge: USC, based on team and series trends. 

NEVADA at NEW MEXICO

Nevada off to 3-0 SU and spread start after Utags win. Wolf Pack has now covered last three as visitors. Even after cover at Hawaii, Lobos only 5-16 last 21 vs. spread (4-15 of that under Bob Davie pre-2020). Tech edge: Nevada, based on team trends.  

FRESNO STATE at UTAH STATE

Utags off to slow 0-3 SU and spread break from gate in 2020, outscored 114-29 in process. USU now on 4-9 spread skid. FSU has won and covered last two after dropping nine of previous 11 vs. points. Tech edge: FSU, based on recent trends. 

GEORGIA STATE at APPALACHIAN STATE

App State has won last six SU in series, 4-1-1 vs. spread in those wins. But Mounties off to 1-5 spread start in 2020 and just 2-4 last six, 4-5 vs. spread last nine at Boone. Tech edge: Slight to App State, based on series trends. 

OREGON at WASHINGTON STATE

The Mike Leach Cougars did well in this series recently, covered last eight meetings. WSU has actually covered last 10 in series back to Paul Wulff days in 2010. Ducks 5-1 vs. line last six against Pac-12 away from Eugene. Tech edge: WSU, based on series trends. 

OREGON STATE at WASHINGTON

Road team has covered last five meetings. Huskies 2-7 vs. spread last nine vs. Pac-12 in Seattle. Beavers covered nine of last 11 in 2019 but lost 2020 opener vs. WSU. Tech edge: OSU, based on team and series trends.

UNLV at SAN JOSE STATE

Home team has won and covered last four meetings. Rebels 2-8 vs. line last 10 on Mountain West trail. Spartans 12-4-1 vs. line since late 2018. Tech edge: SJSU, based on team and series trends.

HAWAII at SAN DIEGO STATE

Aztecs only 5-13 vs. line last 18 as home chalk. Playing home games this year in Carson, Calif., 1-1 in those SU and vs. line. UH has won and covered last two meetings after SDSU won and covered six previous. Tech edge: Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends. 

COLORADO at STANFORD

David Shaw just 3-5 last eight as Farm chalk, Tree on 3-11 spread skid into 2020. But Buffs on 2-10-1 spread skid last 13 as Pac-12 visitors entering 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Stanford, based on CU negatives.

UTEP at UTSA

Miners surprising 4-2 vs. line this year (big upgrade from 10-25-1 previous three years), also covered last three on road this year. Roadrunners 1-3 vs. line at Alamodome this year, just 3-6 vs. spread last nine as hosts. Road team has covered last seven in series.  Tech edge: UTEP, based on recent and series trends. 

BAYLOR at TEXAS TECH

If Red Raiders are dogs, note 4-2 vs. spread last six in role vs. Big 12 at Lubbock. Tech edge: Slight to Texas Tech, if dog, based on team trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at TROY

Hot Chanticleers 7-0 SU and 5-2 vs. line in 2020, also now 8-1 vs. line away from home since last year. Erratic Troy is 3-4 vs. line this year and only 7-12 vs. points for Chip Lindsey since last year. Also 2-5 last seven as dog (1-1 this year). Tech edge: Coastal Carolina, based on recent trends.

ARMY at TULANE

Willie Fritz has won and covered vs. Army in 2017 and ’19. Wave has covered last four and five of last six this season. Fritz on 14-6 spread run, also 8-1 last nine vs. spread at home since last year (2-1 in 2020). Army 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from Michie. Tech edge: Tulane, based on recent trends. 

PENN STATE at NEBRASKA

James Franklin was 5-1 vs. line away from home last year but lost first away in 2020 at Indiana, now 0-3 SU and vs. spread in 2020. Huskers 1-4 vs. spread vs. Big Ten at home last year. Scott Frost also just 1-5 last six as dog. Tech edge: Slight to Penn State, based on team trends. 

SMU at TULSA

Dog team has covered last four in this series. Even after Temple win, SMU only 3-5 vs. line last eight away from Dallas. Tulsa on 7-3 spread uptick since mid-2019, though just 2-5 vs. points last seven as host (0-1 this year). Tech edge: Slight to Tulsa, based on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at UAB

UNT on 5-18 spread skid since mid-2018 for Seth Littrell. Blazers have won and covered last two years vs. Mean Green. UAB not as good as usual vs. line this year (only 2-5) but still 10-3-1 vs. number at Legion Field vs. C-USA foes since program returned in 2017. Tech edge: UAB, based on extended trends. 

SOUTH CAROLINA at OLE MISS

Will Muschamp 3-2 as dog this year (0-2 last two). If one throws out last season when 2-4 as dog, SC is 13-5 as dog since 2017. Ole Miss 3-3 as chalk since last season (though 1-3 in role in non-Vanderbilt games). Lane Kiffin 1-2 vs. line at Vaught-Hemingway this season. Last meeting was in 2018 when Gamecocks won 48-44 at Oxford. Tech edge: SC, based on team trends. 

SOUTH ALABAMA at LOUISIANA

Ragin’ Cajuns have cooled a bit vs. line after Billy Napier 17-7-2 previous 26 vs. spread. Jaguars have covered last two years in series, and USA on 11-4 spread uptick since early 2019. USA also Under 14-5 since 2019, and ULL on 11-4 Under run. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends. 

GEORGIA at MISSOURI

Mizzou had covered four straight in series before Georgia won 27-0 last season. Home team is 5-0 vs. line in Bulldogs games in 2020 (Georgia 0-3 vs. line away from Athens; Florida game in Jacksonville). Tech edge: Mizzou, based on recent and series trends. 

RICE at LOUISIANA TECH

Skip Holtz as chalk not quite as good as Skip Holtz as dog, as Louisiana Tech 1-2 as chalk this year, only 8-10 in role since 2018. Rice has covered last two years in series, 12-8 as dog for Mike Bloomgren since 2018, and 13-8 last 21 on board. Tech edge: Rice, based on recent trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at WESTERN KENTUCKY

WKU finally got a 2020 win last week at FAU but still only 1-6-1 vs. line, now 1-7-2 last 10 on board since late 2019. Hilltoppters also 0-4-1 last five as chalk. USM not any better, 1-8 last nine vs. line since late 2019, a slump that began with 28-10 loss to WKU, which was the last spread cover for Hilltoppers before last week. Golden Eagles Under 9-3 since mid-2019. Tech edge: Slight to Under, based on totals trends.

 

NFL

 

INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE

Colts 2-4 last six vs. line away, 2-2 this year. Titans on 16-5 Over run since Ryan Tannehill took over as starting QB in mid-2019. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends. 

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH

The Burrow Bengals are a solid 6-1-1 vs. line this year, 5-1-1 as dogs. Pittsburgh, however, is 6-2 vs. line and 8-0 SU. Steelers also Over 18-9-1 last 28 with Big Ben at QB (excludes almost all of 2019), though Unders are 6-1-1 last eight in series. Tech edge: Slight to Bengals and Under, based on team and totals trends. 

WASHINGTON at DETROIT

Washington 0-2-1 vs. line away this year, but if Lions chalk note their 1-4 mark last five in role for Matt Patricia. Detroit Over 9-1 last 10 at Ford Field. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends. 

HOUSTON at CLEVELAND

Rough go for Texans, 1-7 SU and vs. line in 2020, 4-12-1 vs. spread since mid-2019. Interim coach Romeo Crennel 2-2 SU and 1-3 vs. line. Houston also no covers last seven as dog. Browns on 3-8 spread skid since late 2019 (a bit better 3-5 this year), also Over 5-2 last seven as hosts. Tech edge: Slight to Browns and Over, based on team and totals trends.

JACKSONVILLE at GREEN BAY

Jaguars had dropped five in a row vs. number and four straight as dogs before late cover last week vs. Texans. Jacksonville still only 5-11 last 16 on board vs. line. Pack 6-2 SU and vs. spread after Niners win, though for what it’s worth only 1-4 as double-digit chalk since 2015. Tech edge: Packers, based on recent trends.

PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS

G-Men rather remarkably 5-0-1 vs. line last six and 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight in 2020  despite being only 2-7 SU. Eagles 1-4 last five as chalk. Road team has covered last five and six of last seven meetings. Tech edge: Giants, based on recent trends.

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA

Road team 7-2 vs. line in Panthers games this year. Carolina 1-3 vs. line at home, now 1-6-1 vs. spread last eight as host. Bucs 2-2 as road chalk this year, and even with Under vs. Saints, now 17-8 Over for Bruce Arians since last year. Arians’ teams Over 32-16 since mid-2016 with Cards. Tech edge: Bucs and Over, based on team and totals trends.

DENVER at LAS VEGAS

Raiders have covered last five in series, also four straight as series hosts, and Under cashed last seven meetings. But Vegas Over 6-1-1 in 2020, and Broncos Over last three. Vic Fangio 5-3 as dog this year, 10-5 last 15 in role. Tech edge: Under and slight to Raiders, based on totals and series trends. 

BUFFALO at ARIZONA

Bills broke four-game spread losing streak with win over Seahawks last week. Cards 5-3 vs. spread in 2020, Kliff Kingsbury now 15-8-1 vs. line with Cards since last year, even after late loss to Dolphins last week. Big Red also on 8-4-1 Under run. Tech edge: Cards and slight to Under, based on team and totals trends. 

SEATTLE at LA RAMS

Rams covered both last year and have won four of last five SU in series. Rams 2-4 last six vs. line this year, also Under five straight. Seahawks 8-5-1 vs. points last 14 away. Tech edge: Slight to Seahawks and Under, based on team and totals trends.  

SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS

Hurtin’ Niners have dropped last two SU and vs. line after Green Bay loss, but they are 3-1 vs. line as visitors in 2020, 9-3 vs. spread as visitors since 2019, which includes wild 48-46 win Dec. 8 at Superdome. Though winners vs. Bucs on Sunday, Saints no covers five of last seven and 2-7 last nine vs. spread at Superdome. N.O. Over 7-1 this season. Tech edge: Niners and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND

Ravens have cooled a bit vs. line, only 2-3-1 last six in 2020 after 9-1 previous 10 vs. spread in regular season. But did handle Indy last week. After Monday vs. Jets, Bill Belichick 3-5 SU and vs. line this year, 1-2 as dog (could easily have covered the games at Seattle and K.C.) after 13-3 spread mark as dog since 2010 entering this season. Tech edge: Slight to Patriots, based on Belichick extended dog marks.

LA CHARGERS at MIAMI

Miami has won and covered last four and 6-1 last seven vs. line, 15-5 last 20 on board since early 2019. Hard-luck Chargers on 5-0 Over run and 9-4 Over last 13 since late 2019. Tech edge: Dolphins and Over, based on team and totals trends.

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO

Vikings have covered five of last six despite 3-5 SU mark, covering their last four as dogs. Bears have lost last three outright. Tech edge: Vikings and Under, based on team and totals trends.

 

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