Betting the MAC? Take the Under

Some big-time trends have developed in several college basketball conferences. One example is the MAC, in which at least 50% of every team’s conference games has gone Under.

Entering Tuesday, the Mid-American had had 28 Overs and 55 Unders. Only Bowling Green had played more than 43% of its games to the Over.

The first thing that comes to mind when a result like this pops up is whether bookmakers have overadjusted to a massive early-season trend. And while MAC teams hit some Overs out of conference, it was not extreme. MAC teams went 68-62-3 to the Over in nonconference games, which forces a deeper dive into the numbers to explain it.

Only Akron and Toledo rank in the top 100 in 3-point shooting percentage, and only Akron and Kent State are in the top 114 in points scored on a per-possession basis. Not a single MAC team rates in the top 75 nationally in free throw shooting percentage; Bowling Green is the best at 79th.

These teams are pretty close to equal, as 22 of the first 82 conference games have been decided by more than 10 points. 

To top it off, this conference lacks ball movement. Five of the 12 MAC teams are in the bottom 65 in assists on a per-possession basis.

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