Last week I began a two-part series on betting systems for each Division I college basketball conference that was starting its tournament. This week I’ll include the six conferences that started their tournaments in that issue’s time frame but wrap up this week while adding all those that begin and end this week.
The angles I have chosen focused on three key areas: bye games, rounds and line ranges. Bettors should understand the value of having a bye is typically significant, especially when that team is believed to be better. In fact, conference tournament favorites or pick-’em teams off a bye are 387-108 SU and 261-222-12 ATS (54%) over the last seven seasons against teams that played
earlier in the tournament. That is a winning wager with nothing else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets early in these tournaments, especially if you think the underdog might have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a preliminary game. All these systems include games heading into the 2021 tournaments.
— Teams that enjoyed a bye in the previous round are on a 28-1 SU and 21-6-2 ATS (77.8%) run as favorites of four points or more vs. teams that had already played.
— Semifinal underdogs are 11-15 SU but 19-5-2 ATS (79.1%) since 2007.