Last week I began a two-part series on betting systems for each Division I college basketball conference that was starting its tournament. This week I’ll include the six conferences that started their tournaments in that issue’s time frame but wrap up this week while adding all those that begin and end this week.
The angles I have chosen focused on three key areas: bye games, rounds and line ranges. Bettors should understand the value of having a bye is typically significant, especially when that team is believed to be better. In fact, conference tournament favorites or pick-’em teams off a bye are 387-108 SU and 261-222-12 ATS (54%) over the last seven seasons against teams that played
earlier in the tournament. That is a winning wager with nothing else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets early in these tournaments, especially if you think the underdog might have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a preliminary game. All these systems include games heading into the 2021 tournaments.
— Teams that enjoyed a bye in the previous round are on a 28-1 SU and 21-6-2 ATS (77.8%) run as favorites of four points or more vs. teams that had already played.
— Semifinal underdogs are 11-15 SU but 19-5-2 ATS (79.1%) since 2007.
— Favorites are 4-2 SU but 1-4-1 ATS (20%) in the last six championship games.
— In the quarterfinals, underdogs of five or fewer points that played in the opening round are on a 5-0 SU and ATS streak vs. teams that enjoyed a bye.
— Favorites in the league title game are just 2-4 SU and ATS (33.3%) since 2014.
— Underdogs in the opening round are on a 5-5 SU and 9-1 ATS (90%) surge, while favorites in the semis have won nine straight games while going 7-2 ATS (77.8%).
— Only one of the last 10 quarterfinal teams that enjoyed a Round 1 bye has lost to a team that had played, going 8-2 ATS (80%). Double-digit quarterfinal favorites are on a 9-1 ATS (90%) run since 2006.
— Semifinal dogs have been a very profitable play of late at 4-6 SU but 9-1 ATS (90%) since 2015.
— Single-digit favorites are on an amazing 29-5 SU and 26-8 ATS (76.5%) run since 2015, including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the title contest.
— Against public perception, games with totals of less than 129 are on a 12-3-1 Over (80%) run.
— Semifinal favorites have been a solid bet since 2014, going 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%).
— A significant benchmark line point in recent years has been 7.5. Favorites of 7.5 points or more are 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) since 2014, while underdogs of seven points or fewer have gone 20-7-3 ATS (74.1%) in that span.
— Favorites of seven or fewer points have been a reliable wager over the last seven years, going 25-11 ATS (69.4%).
— Underdogs are on an 11-6-1 ATS (64.7%) run in the semifinal and championship rounds of the last six tournaments.
METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC
— The highest totaled games (154+ ) have trended significantly Under of late at 12-1 (92.3%) in the last 13.
— Favorites of 9.5 points or more are on a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS run since 2014.
— Two of every three games in the semis and championship over the last seven years have gone Under the total at 14-7 (66.7%).
— Nine of the last 11 (81.8%) games have gone Over the total.
— Teams that played in the first round are on a 14-6 ATS (70%) run vs. teams that didn’t.
— Small underdogs of four or fewer points are on a highly profitable 16-4 SU and ATS (80%) run, including 12-1 SU and ATS (92.3%) in the first two rounds.
— Since 2011, favorites of 5.5 or fewer points are on a 31-13 ATS (70.4%) surge, but they did go 0-2 SU and ATS in 2020.
— Favorites in the quarterfinals that enjoyed a bye in Round 1 are 21-3 SU and 13-7-1 ATS (65%) against those that didn’t since 2014.
— Favorites of seven or fewer points boast a point-spread record of 28-14-1 ATS (66.7%) over the last seven years.
— Double-digit underdogs have proven quite pesky lately, going 13-3 ATS (81.3%) since 2012.
— Single-digit favorites have been the wager of choice during that span at 28-17 ATS (62.2%).
— Chalk has been a 57.4% cover over the last seven years, including 24-12-3 ATS (66.7%) in lines of five points or higher.
— The favorite in the title game is on a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) run dating to 2008.
— Short favorites of three or fewer points are on a 14-5 ATS (73.7%) surge.
— Favorites in the championship game have won seven of the last eight but are just 1-7 ATS (12.5%).
— All four quarterfinal favorites in the 2020 tourney won and covered before the tourney was canceled, running the recent record of the chalk to 40-10 outright since ’14.
— When you think WAC tourney, think chalk. Favorites are on a 35-3 SU and 23-15 ATS (60.5%) run over the last six years, including 18-8 ATS (69.2%) on single-digit lines.
— Championship favorites have swept the last nine games outright and ATS (100%).