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Betting systems for every conference tournament this week

By Steve Makinen  (Point Spread Weekly) 

March 10, 2020 10:58 PM
© Imagn

Last week I started a two-part series on betting systems for each of the 32 Division I college basketball conference tournaments. If you missed that, don’t fret: I am rerunning the eight conferences — ACC, America East, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Patriot, Sun Belt and SWAC — that started their tournaments March 10 or earlier and wrap up this week. For an explanation behind the reasoning or methods I used, refer to last week’s Part 1. Otherwise, here are the key angles for all the remaining conference tournaments. 


— Teams that enjoyed byes in the previous round are on a 27-1 SU and 20-6-2 ATS (76.9%) run as favorites of four points or more vs. teams that played.

— Semifinal underdogs are 11-15 SU but 19-5-2 ATS (79.1%) since 2007.


— Double-digit road underdogs in the quarterfinals are on a 7-2-1 ATS (77.8%) surge.


— In the quarterfinals, underdogs of five or fewer points that played in the opening round are on a 5-0 SU and ATS streak vs. teams that enjoyed byes.


— Favorites are on a 33-17-1 ATS (66%) surge in Round 2 through the semifinals but on a 4-12-1 ATS (25%) slide in the opening round and championship.

BIG 12

— Underdogs in the opening round are on a 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS (87.5%) surge, while favorites in the semis have won nine straight while going 7-2 ATS (77.8%).


— Only one of the last 10 quarterfinal teams that enjoyed a Round 1 bye has lost to a team that played, going 8-2 ATS (80%). Quarterfinal double-digit favorites are on a 9-1 ATS (90%) run since 2006.

— Semifinal dogs have been a very profitable play of late, going 4-6 SU but 9-1 ATS (90%) since 2015.


— Single-digit favorites are on an amazing 28-4 SU and 25-7 ATS (78.1%) run since 2015, including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the title contest.


— Against public perception, games with totals of fewer than 129 are on an 11-2-1 Over (84.6%) run.

— Tourney favorites of six points or more in the first two rounds are just 4-10 ATS (28.6%) since 2014.


— A significant benchmark line point in recent years has been 7.5 points. Favorites of 7.5 points or more are 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) since 2014, while underdogs of seven or fewer points have gone 20-7-3 ATS (74.1%) in that span.


— Favorites of seven or fewer points have been reliable wagers over the last seven years, going 22-10 ATS (68.8%).

— Underdogs are on an 11-6-1 ATS (64.7%) run in the semifinal and championship rounds of the last six tournaments.


— Six of the first nine games have gone Over (66.7%) the total.

— All six favorites of four points or more have won outright, going 4-1-1 ATS (80%).


— The highest totaled games (154+ ) have trended significantly Under of late, going 12-1 (92.3%) in the last 13.


— Two of every three games in the semis and championship over the last seven years have gone Under the total at 14-7 (66.7%).


— Teams that played in the first round are on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) run against teams that didn’t.

— Small underdogs of four or fewer points are on a highly profitable 16-4 SU and ATS (80%) run, including 12-1 SU and ATS (92.3%) in the first two rounds.


— Favorites in the quarterfinals that enjoyed a bye in Round 1 are 21-3 SU and 13-7-1 ATS (65%) against those that didn’t since 2014.

— Favorites of seven or fewer points boast a record of 27-13-1 ATS (67.5%) over the last six years.


— Double-digit underdogs have proven quite pesky lately, going 13-3 ATS (81.3%) since 2012.

— Single-digit favorites have been the wager of choice during that span at 28-17 ATS (62.2%).


— Tourney chalk has been a 57.7% cover over the last six years, including 23-12-3 ATS (65.7%) in lines of five points or higher.


— Favorites in the title game are on a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) run dating to 2008.


— Getting a bye has been a huge reward, as teams that did are 22-4 SU and 18-7-1 ATS (72%) against teams that didn’t over the last six years.

— The tournament has been heavy on chalk over the last four years, as favorites are 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) during that stretch, including 20-5-1 ATS (80%) up through the quarterfinals.


— Championship-game favorites have won seven of the last eight times but are just 1-7 ATS (12.5%).


— When you think WAC tourney, think chalk. Favorites are on a 35-3 SU and 23-15 ATS (60.5%) run over the last six years, including 18-8 ATS (69.2%) on single-digit lines.

— Championship favorites have swept the last nine games both outright and ATS (100%).


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