Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Week 2 Sunday September 17

September 17, 2023 04:18 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be breaking down games from 8 to 10 a.m. ET this morning on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday's NFL Week 2 slate...


1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 45.5) at Tennessee Titans

The Chargers (0-1) dropped their season opener to the Dolphins 36-34, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Titans (0-1) fell to the Saints 16-15 in Week 1 but managed to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with Los Angeles. However, despite receiving 79% of bets we've seen the Chargers fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog, ideally at +3. Tennessee is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 21% of bets. Conference dogs +6 or less are 7-4 ATS this season and 283-199 ATS (59%) since 2019. When two winless teams face off in Week 2 the dog is 42-23 ATS (65%) since 2005. Mike Vrabel is 24-15 ATS (62%) as a dog in his career. Tennessee also presents teaser value (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers. The Chargers will be without star RB Austin Ekeler due to injury. 


1 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-8, 47)

The Raiders (1-0) took down the Broncos 17-16 in Week 1, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Bills (0-1) fell to the Jets 22-16, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle with 50% of bets on both sides. However, despite this even ticket split, we've seen the Bills fall from -9.5. to -8. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this move was caused by smart money grabbing the points with the Raiders. Road dogs are 8-3 ATS this season and 433-344 ATS (56%) since 2018. Jimmy Garoppolo is 20-10 ATS (67%) on the road and 18-5 ATS (78%) as a dog. The Raiders also enjoy a rest advantage, having played on Sunday while the Bills are on a short week having played on Monday night. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (56% ATS). 


1 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2, 40)

The Packers (1-0) crushed the Bears 38-20 last week, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. Similarly, the Falcons (1-0) took down the Panthers 24-10, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. This line initially opened with Atlanta listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, it flipped to Packers -1.5. Since that time, late sharp action has hammered the Falcons, flipping Atlanta back to a 2-point home favorite. This line movement is notable because the public is all over the Packers (72% of bets), yet the line is moving toward the unpopular Falcons (21%). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Atlanta, with pros backing the contrarian favorite and fading trendy dog Green Bay. The Falcons are only receiving 29% of bets but 46% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Those looking to follow the smart money but wary of laying the points could instead target the Falcons on the moneyline at -135. Green Bay will be without two key players due to injury, missing RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson. Tra Blake, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (65%) ATS). 

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