Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday October 1

October 1, 2023 05:10 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, presented by DraftKings. 

Remember, you can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's NFL slate...


1 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 53.5)

The Dolphins (3-0) are undefeated and just destroyed the Broncos 70-20, easily covering as 6-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bills (2-1) have won two straight and just crushed the Commanders 37-3, cruising as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as  a 3-point home favorite. We've seen this line get juiced up to Miami +3 at -120 or fall to 2.5. Reading between the lines, all liability seems to be on the Dolphins, as the line has either stayed the same or fallen and never risen to 3.5. Divisional dogs are 10-6 ATS (62%) this season and 172-130 ATS (57%) since 2020. Short road dogs +3 or less are 7-1 ATS (88%) this season and 106-80 ATS (57%) since 2018. Tua Tagovailo is 11-5 ATS (69%) in his career as a dog, including 5-1 ATS as a divisional dog. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (57% ATS). Those looking to play Miami on the side would be wise to ensure they find the key number of +3. At +2.5, the Dolphins present teaser value (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. 


1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 42) at Houston Texans

The Steelers (2-1) have won two straight and just edged the Raiders 23-18, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (1-2) just won their first game of the season, taking down the Jaguars 37-17 as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Steelers. However, despite receiving 71% of bets we've seen Pittsburgh fall from -4.5 to -3. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already hammering the Steelers to begin with? Because pro money has sided with Houston and the points, triggering sharp line movement in favor of the home dog. Conference dogs +6 or less are 292-209 ATS (58%) since 2019. Mike Tomlin is fantastic as a dog (53-28 ATS, 65%) but has struggled as a favorite (82-92 ATS, 47%). Houston also has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (42), with the fewer amount of expected points making it harder for the favorite to cover. Houston has the edge on offense, averaging 372 yards per game compared to 297 for Pittsburgh. The Texans are giving up just 345 yards on defense compared to 411 for the Steelers. 


4:25 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 43.5)

The Patriots (1-2) are coming off their first win of the season, beating the Jets 15-10 and covering as 2.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Cowboys (2-1) are coming off their first loss, falling to the Cardinals 28-16 as 12-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is expecting a Cowboys bounce back and currently 63% of bets are laying the points with Dallas at home. However, despite this public support we've seen the Cowboys fall from -7.5 to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Patriots, with pros grabbing the points with the unpopular road dog. New England has fallen from +6.5 to +6 over the past 24-hours, signaling late movement continuing to break in their direction. Road dogs are 17-12 ATS (59%) this season and 442-353 ATS (56%) since 2018. Short road dogs +6 or less are 11-6 ATS (65%) this season and 185-119 ATS (61%) since 2019. Scott Novak, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (61% ATS). New England is giving up just 93 rushing yards per game compared to 131 for Dallas. 

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Follow The Money: Michigan vs. Iowa is seeing a total of 34.5 currently, Iowa's offense has been historically bad. Michigan may be able to hit this total to the over on their own. If considering unders look at the Iowa team total. View more tips.

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