Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Opening Night Lions-Chiefs

September 7, 2023 01:20 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for NFL Opening Night...


8:20 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 53)

The Lions went 9-8 last season, narrowly missing the playoffs. Detroit's win total is set at 9.5 this season with the over juiced to -120. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a 14-3 season and won their second Super Bowl title under Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Oddsmakers are expecting another strong year from the Chiefs, as their win total is set at 11.5 with the over juiced to -140. 

For tonight's matchup, the Chiefs opened as a 7-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back Kansas City at home. However, despite 65% of bets laying the points, we saw Kansas City fall from -7 to -6.5 earlier this summer, signaling some respected money backing Detroit. The line sat at Chiefs -6.5 for quite some time. Then earlier this week we saw major line movement toward Detroit as news broke that Kansas City star tight end Travis Kelce injured his knee in practice. Upon the news, massive steam hit the Lions, dropping the Chiefs from -6.5 to -4.5 where it rests now. Kelce is officially listed as questionable. His status bears monitoring leading up to gametime. 

The Lions match several key betting systems. Detroit has sharp reverse line movement in their favor while also being contrarian (35% of bets) in a heavily bet game, offering excellent "betting against the public" value. Over the past four seasons, primetime dogs have gone 117-88 ATS (57%) producing +21 units with a 10% ROI. Primetime games are the best time to go bet against the public because they are the most heavily bet games of the week and offer the most public bias to go against. Week 1 road dogs are also 50-35 ATS (59%) since 2014. Lions head coach Dan Campbell is 23-11 ATS (67%), including 20-9 ATS (69%) as a dog. 

The Lions could also be worth a look in a teaser (+4.5 to +10.5), which qualifies as a sharp "Wong Teaser" as it passes through multiple key numbers (7 and 10). 

Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from as high as 54.5 to 53. This movement is especially notable because 61% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. This signals sharp under money, along with an adjustment downward due to Kelce's questionable status. The under is receiving 39% of bets but 51% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. Primetime unders are 122-80 (60%) over the past four seasons, producing +32 units won with a 16% ROI. 

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