Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for MNF Bills-Jets

September 11, 2023 05:12 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football...


8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-2, 45.5) at New York Jets

The Bills went 13-3 last season but lost to the Bengals in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs 27-10. Buffalo's win total for this season is set at 10.5 with the over juiced to -115. Meanwhile, the Jets went 7-10 but oddsmakers are expecting an improvement this season with Aaron Rodgers under center. New York's win total is 9.5 but the under is juiced to -125. 

This Monday Night Football line opened with the Bills listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and 64% of bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Buffalo. This lopsided action drove the Bills up to -2.5 where it sat for roughly a week. However, over the past 24-hours we've seen Buffalo fall from -2.5 to -2. This signals sharp buyback on the Jets plus the points. 

The Jets match several key betting systems. New York is contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game, receiving only 36% of bets. Week 1 dogs have gone 9-6 ATS (60%) to start this season and are now 45-33 ATS (58%) since 2019. Divisional dogs are 4-3 ATS (57%) to start this season and are now 166-127 ATS (57%) since 2020. Meanwhile, primetime dogs are 1-1 ATS to start this season but a profitable 93-65 ATS (59%) since 2020. Primetime games are often the best times to go contrarian because they are the most heavily bet games of the week, which offer the most public bias to go against. 

The Jets also present Wong Teaser value. By taking New York up from +2 to +8 you can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. The field goal (3) and the touchdown (7) are the most common methods of scoring, which also make them the most common margins of victory. 

Pros have also hit the under, as the total has fallen from 47 to 45.5. This line movement is notable because 66% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cash their over? Because sharps have gotten down on the under, which is only receiving 34% of bets but 47% of money, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Primetime unders are 2-0 so far this season and now 124-80 (61%) since 2019. Divisional unders are 5-2 this season and 61-41 (60%) since the start of last season. Unders are 11-4 (73%) to start the season. 

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