Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday July 17

July 17, 2023 06:24 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's MLB slate...


8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-130, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals 

The Tigers (41-51) just took two of three at the Mariners but dropped Sunday's series finale 2-0, losing as +145 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Royals (27-67) just lost two of three against the Rays but won yesterday's series finale 8-4, cashing as +190 home dogs. In tonight's series opener, Detroit hands the ball to righty Matt Manning (3-1, 3.72 ERA) and Kansas City counters with Jordan Lyles (1-11, 6.42 ERA). This line opened with the Tigers listed as a -125 road favorite and the Royals a +110 home dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with Detroit, steaming the Tigers up from -125 to -130. Detroit is receiving 65% of bets but 89% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Sweet Spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 141-77 (65%) this season with a 13% ROI. Both teams are hitting roughly .230. The difference comes on the mound, with Detroit sporting a 4.39 team ERA compared to 5.25 for Kansas City. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 9. The forecast calls for low 80s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from center. When two AL Central teams face off, the under is 40-26 (61%) this season with a 15% ROI. Lyles has made 17 starts this season. The Royals are 1-16 in those games. 


9:38 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (-120, 9)

The Yankees (50-44) just lost two of three at the Rockies, falling 8-7 yesterday as -215 road favorites. Similarly, the Angels (46-48) just lost two of three against the Astros, losing 9-8 yesterday as +105 home dogs. In tonight's series opener, New York goes with righty Luis Severino (1-4, 7.38 ERA) and Los Angeles starts fellow righty Griffin Canning (6-4, 4.62 ERA). This line opened with the Angels listed as high as a -135 home favorite and the Yankees a +115 road dog. The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn't know which side to take. However, despite these even bet percentages we've seen Los Angeles fall from -135 to -120. This signals sharp action taking the Yankees as a plus money dog (+115 to +105). New York is receiving 55% of bets but 82% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. Road dogs with a line move in their favor are 120-124 (49%) but have produced a 12% ROI due to the plus money payouts. The Yankees also have value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Angels are in a classic wiseguy "fade" spot having just played on Sunday Night Baseball last night. 

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