Betting Splits and CFB Sharp Money Picks for Friday September 8 Illinois-Kansas

September 8, 2023 06:16 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's College Football action...


7:30 p.m. ET: Illinois at Kansas (-3, 57)

Illinois (1-0) beat Toledo 30-28 on a last-second field goal in their season opener but failed to cover as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, Kansas (1-0) crushed FCS-level Missouri State 48-17 but also failed to cover as 32.5-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Kansas listed as high as a 4-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and they're rushing to the window the lay the points with the Jayhawks at home. However, despite receiving 71% of bets, we've seen Kansas fall from -4 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Illinois, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Illinois has value as an unpopular contrarian dog (only receiving 29% of bets) in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime games are the best spots to contrarian because they are the most heavily bet games of the week with the most public bias to go against (this game will be nationally televised in ESPN2). Illinois is also receiving a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor, taking in only 29% of bets but 46% of the money. 

Short road dogs +4 or less are 440-383 ATS (54%) over the past decade, generating a 4% ROI with +30 units won. Typically, oddsmakers award roughly three-points for home field advantage. So if a road team is getting 4-points or less, it basically means the two teams are even and the spread would be roughly a pick'em on a neutral site. 

Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 55.5 to 57. Currently 53% of bets and 57% of money is taking the over, signaling a relatively undecided public but also some respected over smart money. The forecast at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium calls for mid 80s with 5 MPH winds. Historically, we've seen hot weather benefit overs as the defense is gassed and the offense holds the upper hand. 

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