I bet you clicked on this link thinking I would open the piece talking about the Charlotte Hornets … well, you would be wrong. Who cares if Charlotte is 10-8 SU/13-5 ATS in its last 18 games after inexplicably closing as an underdog at home to a Houston team without three starters? Who cares that over that stretch they have the ninth-best net rating in the league? Not me!
In the immortal words of Epidemic, “I tried to tell ‘em.”
I actually want to open with the Milwaukee Bucks, because yesterday I did something I think is very important for handicappers in any sport: I admitted I was wrong.
Two weeks ago, I wrote in this very column about the struggling Bucks defense, and the perimeter D that was allowing over 40 percent shooting to opponents. I took my shot by taking Indiana + 8.5 in what would be a massacre. I watched as Milwaukee bludgeoned Portland and Cleveland (twice), and researched more about the Bucks. That research led to me to alter my perception of the Bucks, and I laid four points yesterday with Milwaukee against Denver.
The willingness to admit I was wrong, research why and subsequently play on my newfound angle led to a winner last night. I always try to learn something on a daily basis. Consistently improving as a handicapper is something we should strive to do, and I believe I have done that here.
What are we going to learn today? Let’s find out together. Here are my betting game notes for Tuesday.
Note: * indicates that team is on second leg of a back-to-back.
Updated injury reports can be found here.
Updated odds for every game can be found here.
Houston Rockets* at New Orleans Pelicans (-5, 224.5)
The betting market is funny. Yesterday, the market thought that Houston was good enough to be favored on the road over Charlotte without Christian Wood, John Wall and Eric Gordon. Today, despite the fact that Wall and Gordon will be back on the floor, the betting market believes the Rockets are 5.5 points worse than New Orleans and only have a 32.8 percent chance to win this game. That seems somewhat incorrect to me, especially when you consider Houston was in this very building 10 days ago as a two-point underdog for a game it eventually won.
Is the combo of Chris Wood and Victor Oladipo, who played in that game but will not here, worth that much? Odd when the trio of Wood, Wall and Gordon missing the game meant only a 1.5-point adjustment yesterday, but Oladipo and Wood mean 3.5 points in this one.