When you handicap a sport every day, sometimes you get onto a trend before the market can catch up to it. Lately, that trend for me has been the under in Lakers games.
After a 112-97 loss to Milwaukee last night, the under is 1-6 for Los Angeles since losing LeBron James to an ankle injury. Until the market makes a noticeable adjustment, is it something we should continue to play?
Since James went down, the Lakers are averaging just 99 points every 100 possessions and shooting just 42.7% from the floor. Their games have averaged 204.4 total points per game, but bettors have seen an average total of 215.4 on these contests since the injury. In today’s NBA it is hard to find totals lower than 212, but in these Lakers games those totals should be lower than what we have seen.
They play Sacramento on Saturday, and the total in Kings games over the last month have been a whopping 232.5, which seems like another opportunity for an under play. However, the 30th-ranked defense in the league always opens the door for poor offenses to raise their level of play. Does this run of unders end this weekend?
Updated odds for every game can be found here.
Updated injury reports for every game can be found here.
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
The Main Event
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers (-1, 228.5)
A blown fourth-quarter lead on Tuesday night against Orlando snapped a 6-0 SU and ATS run for the Clippers. They must try to get back on track against a Nuggets team that has won and covered three straight and went 11-3 SU/9-5 ATS in the month of March. Los Angeles had been on a tear on offense, averaging 120.9 points every 100 possessions in the eight games leading up to the loss on Tuesday. However, against the Magic the Clippers’ offense disappeared and managed just 0.99 points per possession, and their white-hot shooting was cooled with a 12-of-37 performance from deep. Defensively, Los Angeles actually put forward a great effort by limiting Orlando to just 1.084 points per possession and that will have to be the case again tonight when they face Denver.