What a weekend, huh? The Utah Jazz continued their dominant run, beating up on the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night before handling Miami the very next day. Utah improved to 17-2 ATS in its last 19 games but a pretty tempting sell-high spot looms tonight against Philadelphia.
We also had a bunch of injury news this weekend that bettors should track. Kevin Durant is out for at least two games with a hamstring issue, Anthony Davis aggravated the Achilles injury he’s been dealing with, Kawhi Leonard has a knee contusion and Mitchell Robinson is done for at least four weeks.
The Davis news is massive, as I expect him to miss quite a bit of time with what sounds like a really serious injury. Los Angeles is now 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games, and was blown off the floor in Denver on Sunday night. Over these 11 games, the Lakers are struggling to find a consistent offense, as they are 22nd in offensive rating during this poor stretch. How realistic is a repeat title for Los Angeles now?
Notes today are somewhat short, with analysis on the three NBA games that really intrigue me on Monday. Early duty on Follow The Money this morning put me behind, but we are back to full strength tomorrow. Being a star is difficult!
Note: *indicates that team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
Updated injury reports can be found here.
Updated odds for every game can be found here.
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers
This seems like a solid buy-low spot for Chicago today. Indiana has been in pretty poor form lately, going 6-9 SU/5-10 ATS in their last 15 games with a -2.6 net rating. Over the same 15-game stretch, Chicago has the better offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating. Yet, the market believes that Indiana is 5.5 points better and has a 68.8 percent chance of winning this game. Count me out on that one.
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks
The Hawks have fallen on some hard times. They are 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in their last seven games with a -7.5 net rating. Their offense has been average, but their defense has fallen off a cliff and is allowing 119.1 points every 100 possessions. However, the betting market feels confident enough in this team to make them a favorite in New York against the Knicks at MSG! The Knickerbockers are playing some really good basketball lately, going 8-7 SU/10-5 ATS in their last 15 games with the fifth-best net rating in the league (+ 5.0). Why is that team an underdog at home?
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz
On Friday night the Utah Jazz closed as a 2.5-point favorite over Milwaukee in a game they would eventually win comfortably. Three days later they take on a Philadelphia team I have on par with Milwaukee, but they are laying five more points. Yes, Joel Embiid is questionable with a back injury, but if history is an indicator we can expect Embiid on the floor tonight. The market has seemingly made the adjustment on a Utah team that is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 games, and that is enough to view Philadelphia as a value bet if Embiid plays this evening.