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Betting menu adjusts as Florence approaches

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

September 12, 2018 02:41 AM

Florence wreaking havoc on the college football schedule. Plus, estimated NFL “market” Power Ratings and the latest from baseball’s pennant races (Cubs win, Phils lose TWO) right now in VSiN City.

Hurricane Florence: Major storm causes schedule changes across Atlantic seaboard 
Current forecasts suggest hurricane Florence will be roughly the size of North Carolina when it hits the Carolinas later this week. Models suggest a slow move inland that will cause substantial flooding in the Carolinas, Maryland, Virginia, and parts further northwest of landfall. 

College football programs moved quickly when the threat was clear. Resources usually devoted to college football events will have much more serious concerns through the weekend. Here are the latest schedule changes at publication deadlines. 

Thursday’s Tentative Adjustment
Boston College at Wake Forest: now scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

There’s still a chance this game will get postponed depending on storm tracking over the next 24 hours. No league wants to lose a conference game in a major TV window. Given that it’s unlikely either would be playing in the ACC Championship game the first weekend in December, this could be made up at that time. (If BC wins the Atlantic Division with a win over Clemson, things could get messy.)

Saturday Site Change
Ohio at Virginia: now played at Vanderbilt’s home field in Nashville, TN

This interconference affair will kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday in Tennessee. Note that the stadium is available because Vandy is playing at Notre Dame Saturday afternoon at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC. 

Preliminary Postponements
East Carolina at #13 Virginia Tech
#14 West Virginia at NC State
#18 Central Florida at North Carolina

A shame that three ranked teams might lose games so early. All will try to reschedule later this season, particularly if results would impact the postseason. 

As of now, Old Dominion at Charlotte is still on. What would have been an “extra” game on the Saturday card featuring Campbell at Coastal Carolina will now be played at Campbell Wednesday (today!) at 2 p.m. ET. 

If you’ve placed bets on these games, or on Regular Season Win Totals involving these teams, check with the sports book in question for specific rules on refunds. Many sports books automatically refund any Regular Season Win bet that has an outright cancellation. That’s true whether you would have ultimately won or lost the wager. They do have to wait until the of the season to return your money though, on the chance that games will be made up after Thanksgiving. 

The South Point considers all RSW total bets to be “action,” meaning that all bets are still live. The downside of that for bettors is that any cancelled game counts the same as a loss for both teams. You can’t win a game you can’t play! Under bettors don’t mind, particularly if they bet Under for one of this week’s favorites. 

Be sure you watch VSiN programming through the week for more schedule announcements. If you live in the projected path, monitor emergency programming in your area and stay safe!

NFL: Early lines and estimated “market” Power Ratings
As of now, no Florence impact in the NFL. Let’s quickly run through Tuesday night’s lines from the South Point, then build this week’s estimated “market” Power Ratings. 

Thursday
Baltimore (-1/44) at Cincinnati (most stores showing pick-em)

Sunday
Indianapolis at Washington (-5.5/45)
Carolina at Atlanta (-5.5/44)
Minnesota at Green Bay (no line pending status of Rodgers)
LA Chargers (-7/43) at Buffalo
Houston at Tennessee (no line pending status of Mariota)
Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-5/43)
Miami at NY Jets (-2.5/44) (many stores at -3)
Philadelphia (-3/44) at Tampa Bay
Cleveland at New Orleans (-8.5/49)
Arizona at the LA Rams (-12.5/45.5)
Detroit at San Francisco (-5.5/47/5)
New England (-2/45) at Jacksonville)
Oakland at Denver (-5.5/45)
NY Giants at Dallas (-3/42.5)
Seattle at Chicago (-3.5/43) (many stores at -3, Chicago -120)

Now to our estimate of how the “market” sees the 32-team field on a Power Ratings scale. We use a standard three points for home field advantage. Then, we build “couplets” from every game to place on the scale. Baltimore is currently pick-em in Cincinnati at most shops. That would mean the Ravens should go three spots higher on the ladder. We make a good faith effort to place every team on the correct rung. 

If you’re new to the newsletter, on this scale…85 and up is usually championship caliber…80 and up is playoff caliber…78-79 is close to or just below .500 caliber. Jonathan Von Tobel and I put our heads together Tuesday evening, and came up with this pending eventual lines in Minnesota/Green Bay and Houston/Tennessee. 

87: New England
86: LA Rams
84: Minnesota, Atlanta, Philadelphia (with Foles)
83: Green Bay, New Orleans, Pittsburgh 
82: Jacksonville, Houston, San Francisco
81: Baltimore, LA Chargers, Kansas City, Carolina
80: Washington, Denver, Tennessee 
79: Dallas, NY Giants, Chicago, Detroit
78: Cincinnati, Tampa Bay (with Fitzpatrick), Seattle
77: Cleveland, Indianapolis, Oakland
76: Miami, NY Jets, Arizona
71: Buffalo

A lot of trouble spots this week. New England was -7.5 at home vs. Jacksonville in the AFC championship, and was fortunate to win the game. Market hasn’t made any adjustment off that perception even though it feels the Jags are closer than five points back on a neutral field. We weren’t ready to launch the Patriots up to 88 off a market-expectation win over Houston. And, we weren’t ready to make them two points clear of the field. Went with 87 and 82 for Pats and Jags, and lifted the Rams to 86.

Where to drop Buffalo? The market has the Bills 10 points worse than the Chargers on a neutral field. No way to lift LAC off a bad home loss to KC. We went with 81 and 71. Buffalo is now rated as expansion caliber. 

Miami and the Jets both had good results last week, and are seen as even. Should they both be on the 77 line instead of the 76 line? Want to see another week before concluding that. 

Cleveland is only SIX worse than NEW ORLEANS on a neutralized scale? If that line solidifies at Saints -8, it would only be five points. Doesn’t seem right, particularly when you study the box score stats from Cleveland’s fortunate tie. Can’t buy the Browns as a 77…but can’t buy the Saints at 82 either. We’ll see what happens with the line through the week. 

Detroit looked awful vs. the Jets, while San Francisco lost to Minnesota on a defensive TD at a very tough site. Surprised the market only has them three points apart neutralized. 

The Giants and Cowboys are even Steven? After the Giants were six worse than Jacksonville in market terms last week…and Dallas was even with Carolina? Tough to know where to put that NYG/Dallas pairing. Anywhere from 77 to 81.

Let us know if you think any couplets are off. Drop us a note, or send me a tweet @JeffFogle…or Jonathan a tweet @meJVT.

MLB Tuesday: Clutch bounce backs for the Cubs and Diamondbacks, brutal losses as favorites for the Dodgers and Phillies 
Important night in the pennant chase. We’ll start with the two games featuring playoff contenders going head-to-head…then run through the other relevant early finishers. 

Chicago (-125) 3, Milwaukee 0
Total Bases Plus Walks: Milwaukee 5, Chicago 6
Starting Pitchers: Chacin 5 IP, 1 ER, Quintana 6.2 IP, 0 ER
Bullpen: Milwaukee 3 IP, 1 ER, Chicago 2.1 IP, 0 ER

A game with no homers, no triples, and one double. For the two offenses combined! Real concerns that neither will be able to hit playoff caliber pitching the way they’ve NOT been lighting up the scoreboard against each other. Weather will only be cooler at Wrigley in October. In that scenario, you’re looking at a series of coin flips where anything can happen. Series dogs should offer value, theoretically. 

Chicago rebuilds its lead to two games over Milwaukee at the top of the NL Central. Chicago is 84-60, Milwaukee 83-63. 

Arizona (-120) 6, Colorado 3
Total Bases Plus Walks: Arizona 19, Colorado 17
Starting Pitchers: Greinke 6.2 IP, 3 ER, Senzatela 6 IP, 4 ER
Bullpen: Arizona 1.1 IP, 0 ER, Colorado 3 IP, 2 ER

Diamondbacks aren’t dead yet. Not quite a must-win affair. But…dangerously close. Arizona is 77-68, 2.5 games behind Colorado’s record of 79-65. You have to figure it’s going to take at least 15 games over .500 to win the West (unless all three contenders stumble around). Probably better than that to get a Wildcard. 

Also Tuesday…

*The Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) LOST at Cincinnati 3-1. Dodgers are 0-6 against the Reds this season! Are you kidding? Sweeping Arizona at home recently has been virtually washed away by these losses as big favorites to a non-entity. Dodgers fall to 78-67, still 1.5 games behind Colorado, but only one ahead of Arizona. Our Wednesday feature in the New York Post will talk about how the Dodgers are “supposed” to be the class of this division based on a variety of analytical measures. Still time for it to happen. 

*Philadelphia got SWEPT at HOME by Washington 3-1 and 7-6. Another are you kidding?! Phillies were -145 in the opener, -135 in the nightcap. It felt like a fork’s been in the Phillies’ backs for awhile. This probably struck an artery. Philadelphia is now 74-70. They’d have to close 16-2 to finish 90-72. This from a team that’s 11-22 its last 33 games. We’ll take them out of the nightly mix unless they win every game for a week. Or, Atlanta loses every game for a week.  

*St. Louis (-140) beat Pittsburgh 11-5. It’s conceivable that St. Louis is the “true” favorite to win the National League now in terms of skill sets and form. We’ll learn more about that in a long series vs. the Dodgers this weekend. Of course…the Cards have to make the playoffs first! St. Louis is now 81-64, just 1.5 games behind Milwaukee for second place in the NL Central…still 3.5 games behind the Cubs for first. Cards are 30-13 since sitting at 51-51 a week after the All-Star break.  

*Houston (-185) won at Detroit 5-4. Astros now 91-54. 

*Oakland (-190) won at Baltimore 3-2. A’s now 88-57, staying three games behind Houston in the AL West race. You’ll see in a moment they picked up a game on the Yanks in the battle for home field in the likely AL Wildcard matchup. 

*Cleveland (-135) won at Tampa Bay 2-0. Indians now 82-63.

*Boston (-330) beat Toronto 7-2. Red Sox now 99-46. That’s eight games ahead of the Astros for home field advantage throughout the postseason.  

*NY Yankees (-185) LOST at Minnesota 10-5. The Yankees decided to start Sonny Gray so the rotation could get some extra rest days down the stretch. Luis Severino was originally going to go tonight until that announcement this past weekend. Amazingly, it’s hard to tell the difference right now between Gray and Severino! Yankees have a great 90-55 record, only one game worse than the powerhouse Astros. Teams don’t feel even lately. Only two games clear of Oakland. 

South Point 400: Jimmie Johnson announced as special guest Thursday on “Gone Racin’”
A very special week at the South Point as NASCAR universe comes to visit. Also, a very special week on “Gone Racin’” as Jimmie Johnson is the guest this Thursday. Be sure you tune in at 5 p.m. ET, 2 p.m. here in Las Vegas for the hour show.

Ron Flatter, Brendan Gaughan, and Jeff Motley are your hosts. Red hot Jeff Cogliandro (@NASCARvisionary on twitter) provides handicapping insights for bettors.  

A reminder of the South Point’s current betting odds on the big race (with percentage win equivalents in parenthesis)…

South Point 400 
Kevin Harvick 5/2 (29% win equivalent)
Martin Truex Jr. 7/2 (22%)
Kyle Busch 7/2 (22%)
Kyle Larson 6/1 (14%)
Brad Keselowski 15/1 (6%)
Ryan Blaney 15/1 (6%)

Back tomorrow with a stat preview of Ravens/Bengals and a stat recap of Game 3 from the WNBA Finals.

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