Betting market has supported Rams -- until now

By Jeff Fogle  ( 

February 1, 2019 09:38 PM

How good are the Los Angeles Rams? 

Betting markets overshot the mark much of the season on the up-and-coming league power. Has public sentiment for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots moved the market too far the other way heading into Sunday’s Super Bowl (CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET)? 

Through much of 2018, the market was pricing the Rams as one of the best teams of the last decade! VSiN has documented that for you on these pages through the season with estimated “market” Power Ratings compiled by Jonathan Von Tobel (of “Betting Across America”) and me.

 Los Angeles was -7.5 at Seattle (same as -10.5 on a neutral field), then -2 at New Orleans in a regular season meeting (same as five points better on a neutral field). Even in mid-December, the Rams were -13.5 at home against eventual NFC wildcard Philadelphia. The sum intelligence of oddsmakers and sharp influences saw LA as well clear of other “playoff caliber” teams. 

Backers learned the hard way that the Rams weren’t THAT good (yet). Sean McVay, Jared Goff, and company went 2-8-1 through an 11-game stretch against inflated point spreads (8-3 straight up). 

So, the 2018 Rams probably aren’t one of the best teams of the last decade. Are they good enough to beat the Patriots on a neutral field? 

Some of you may be thinking that the relative gift LAR received from officials in the NFC Championship game in New Orleans is a disqualifier.

“If they weren’t good enough to legitimately beat the Saints, I’m not going to bet on them to beat the Patriots.” 

Whether or not they “deserve” to be in Atlanta, the Rams are clearly “Super Bowl caliber” based on their playoff stats.

  • LA outgained New Orleans two weeks ago 378-290 on the road, winning yards-per-play 5.6 to 4.5. It held the Saints rushing attack to just 48 yards on 21 carries, and controlled flow of play after adjusting to the noise challenges of playing indoors in front of a hostile crowd. (From 13-0 down, the Rams won the rest of regulation 23-10 with a stat edge of more than 150 yards.)
  • LA outgained Dallas in its playoff opener 459-308 with a 273-50 bulldozing on the ground. 

Lucky? Yes. But able to express statistical superiority vs. quality opponents. 

Sunday is still “Goliath vs. Goliath.” The NFC representative is a relatively young Goliath trying to find it’s coordination and balance after a two-year growth spurt. Regular season markets didn’t appreciate challenges of the learning curve. A playoff yardage advantage of 837-598 may be a sign the Rams are now ready. 

The AFC representative is on the other end of the spectrum, an aging Goliath in a battle against time. We’ll talk more about the New England Patriots and reasonable Super Bowl expectations Sunday in our final football report of the season. You might be surprised to learn how difficult its been for the Brady/Belichick tandem to get scoreboard distance from NFC champions.

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.


View All
  • Zach_LaVine

    Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Circa Quarter prizes, Wednesday best bet (12/8)

    “You can’t win ‘em all.” If you were to watch games with me in the Tuley’s Takes home office or in one of the sportsbooks...
  • bama

    Early CFP Semifinals Sharp Report

    Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 13 NBA games, 4 NHL games and 50 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown...
  • USATSI_17214623

    Peterson: Best bet for Wyoming vs. Arizona

    The Wyoming Cowboys have started out the season with eight straight wins, but face their toughest test yet when they go to Tucson on Wednesday to face...
  • makinennfl

    Analyzing NFL QBs for betting success

    I have always been a football handicapper who puts a ton of stock into the quality of quarterback play. In my opinion, there is no more important position...
  • makinencbb

    Ten midmajors to watch

    The college basketball season has been up and running for nearly a month, and it’s a good time to start plotting for the rest of the season based...
  • makinencfb

    Who's hot, not ahead of bowls?

    With college bowl season opening Dec. 17, here’s a look at which bowl-bound teams are hot and which are not, as well as teams that have had big...
  • burkesurvivor

    Tricky week in survivor pools

    There are only five weeks left in the NFL regular season, but for those still alive in survivor pools, the light at the end of the tunnel is merely a...
  • burkecbb

    Why pace matters in college hoops

    A lot of early-season questions have been answered in college basketball. But as conference play kicks into gear, adjustments will be needed. There...
  • tuley

    Tuley's Takes on NFL Week 14

    NFL Week 13 was another roller-coaster ride here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but as has happened many weekends this season, teasers saved...
  • hill

    NFL capsules for Week 14

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) will be looking for their second win in five days when they...
  • appelbaum

    Five NFL games on wise guys' radar

    It was a mixed bag for NFL Week 13 bettors as favorites went 8-6 SU and 8-6 ATS. Dogs remain profitable for the season at 107-85-1 ATS (56 percent). ...
  • macneil

    NHL teams slip-sliding away

    The Canucks and Flyers fired their coaches over the weekend, and the Canucks took it a step further, firing their general manager as well. It’s...

VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!


  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store