To find value in a particular NHL player prop, a bettor must first predict what is likely to happen. Then, with a prediction in hand, it’s time to assign probabilities to both sides of the prop. Finally, a bettor must quantify his edge so he can decide whether to place a bet. For instance, “Will Auston Matthews Score A Goal?” is a prop many sportsbooks offered Monday evening before the Toronto Maple Leafs faced the Ottawa Senators. Here’s how FanDuel priced the prop:
It might have been a good bet, but a bettor must first analyze data from previous games and use his best judgment to estimate the expected number of goals Matthews will score. Otherwise, there’s no way to know how often the event will occur. Computationally, it’s a complex problem. Therefore, most bettors don’t have the slightest clue how oddsmakers price a market like this one, let alone how they should price it themselves.