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Best value bets for UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane

By Reed Kuhn  (VSiN.com) 

kuhn

Even with the loss of an Amanda Nunes title defense, the fight card for UFC 265 offers plenty of interesting betting angles. Nunes was already a -800 favorite before testing positive for COVID-19, so she didn’t offer much value. But the card features other experienced fighters, and several with title-bout experience, meaning we have a lot of data to pour through seeking a comfortable side.

(To view the charts accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly)

Light-heavyweights: Alonzo Menifield (-240) vs. Ed Herman (+ 200)

Some potential violence is brewing on the preliminary card between Alonzo Menifield and Ed Herman. Having moved up from middleweight, Herman enters the cage on the wrong side of 40 against a former heavyweight with about the same height and reach but seven years younger. That means Menifield is likely to be the more powerful and heavier fighter on fight night. 

But traditional stats aside, the most glaring metric is Herman’s head-strike defense at just 58%. That’s quite bad for a veteran who has survived in the UFC for 25 career appearances, though it certainly speaks to his toughness. The problem is that he has taken plenty of damage over the years, and Menifield has demonstrated excellent power-strike accuracy. 

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