Best Thursday Night Football bets: Patriots-Falcons

By VSiN Staff  ( 

November 18, 2021 07:58 AM

Let's kick off a new week in the NFL with another Thursday Night Football game, this time between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons.

We've got a market report on the game from South Point director Chris Andrews and a best bet from Adam Burke as Week 11 gets underway.

New England Patriots (-7, 47) at Atlanta Falcons

Market report from Chris Andrews: The public is all over the Patriots. I opened New England -6 and they laid it, along with -6.5. I’m up to Patriots -7. Sharps are starting to step in on the underdog at the key number. Not surprising that the public wants the Pats after last Sunday’s blowout of Cleveland. Can a team led by a rookie quarterback play great again just a few days later on the road? I agree with the sharps who think seven is too high. My opening total of 47 is up to 47.5. A little bit of public play on the Over. I saw the market going higher and moved along with it.

Burke: Any 40-point loss is going to get some attention, but the Falcons may be fortunate to play on Thursday this week. With limited preparation and recovery time, dwelling on the blowout at the hands of the Cowboys was not an option. Atlanta had to turn the page right away and get ready for the Patriots.

New England is up to -7 at a lot of shops for Thursday’s game and this line seems to have gotten a little bit rich. The lookahead line was -4 before last week’s set of results and the overreaction to the “sticker shock” of both finals. Is a three-point adjustment fair given what happened? It could be, but the Patriots were able to bury the Browns with a pick-six and third-down conversions. The Cowboys are just an elite offense.

The Cleveland win was the first really good one for New England. The Patriots beat the Chargers off the bye, but a pick-six was the difference there and the Chargers had a big edge in yards per play.

Last week was a third road game in four weeks for the Falcons and came off of an emotional, close division win. I’m willing to give Atlanta a pass for looking that bad and don’t mind going against an inflated price for the Patriots off of their best performance of the season.

Pick: Falcons + 7

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