Best Thursday Night Football bets: Jets-Colts

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_14993164

Let's kick off a new week in the NFL with another Thursday Night Football game, this time between the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts.

We've got a market report on the game from South Point director Chris Andrews and best bets from Adam Burke and Dave Tuley as Week 9 gets underway.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 45.5)

Market report from Chris Andrews: I opened Indianapolis -10.5. Very little action through the week. That at least tells us that sharps don’t like the Jets + 10.5 or respected underdog money would have brought the line down to the key number of 10. We’ll see on game day how aggressive the public is betting the Colts. Indy isn’t seen as a “blowout” team. And, the Jets had very good stats in their upset of Cincinnati last Sunday. I would expect sharps to bet the Jets + 11 if it became available. My opening total of 46.5 drew immediate sharp money on the Under. I dropped straight to 45.5. No movement since.

Tuley: I didn’t have the Jets as double-digit home dogs vs. the Bengals, and my mistake was going along with all the experts out there that Mike White hadn’t looked very impressive in relief of Zach Wilson in the Jets’ 54-13 loss to the Patriots the week before. It’s hard to back a team off a loss like that, especially going to a backup QB.

The Jets are again getting double digits even after upsetting the Bengals, and I’m willing to jump on them. But, having said all that, this bet is more about fading the Colts at this high number. The Colts are clearly the better team, but I have this line closer to a touchdown. The Colts held the lowly Texans to three points three weeks ago, but they average giving up 22.9 points per game. If the Jets can get in that 20-23 range, I don’t see the Colts topping 30 points to get the cover, especially as the Jets have the pass rush to force Carson Wentz into mistakes.

Pick: Jets + 10.5

Burke: The Colts have three wins this season. In each one of those games, Jonathan Taylor has exceeded 100 yards rushing. The Colts as a double-digit favorite would suggest that Indianapolis leads for most of the game and the game state would then dictate that we should see a lot of Taylor.

He hasn’t had more than 18 carries in a game this season, but that could change here on a short week with the Colts in a big favorite role. Indianapolis has trailed a lot this season, which has forced the hands of the offensive play callers. The Colts probably want a little bit more balance than they’ve been able to achieve throughout the season and games with big favorite roles are a good way to do it.

The Jets have done well against the run, though they haven’t faced a lot of good rushing attacks this season. In fact, by yards per carry, this will be the first one the Jets have faced. They did face the Titans, who are close to being in the top 10.

This should be a high-volume night for Taylor and he has averaged 5.4 yards per carry this season. If he gets into the upper teens or low 20s in carries as I expect, he should be able to get over this line of 82.5. Shop around for the best line as always.

Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 82.5 Rushing Yards

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: The Braves might be better than last season. Still value on them in the futures markets.

Follow The Money: When looking at totals the key stats to focus on are pace of play and number of plays, according to college football handicapper Paul Stone.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Matt Youmans: Arizona +13 vs Oregon

Josh Appelbaum: Browns +3 vs Chargers

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-03_at_7.42.33_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

 

 

Close