Best Thursday Night Football bets: Dolphins-Ravens

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

November 11, 2021 09:13 AM
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Let's kick off a new week in the NFL with another Thursday Night Football game, this time between the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens.

We've got a market report on the game from South Point director Chris Andrews and best bets from Adam Burke and Dave Tuley as Week 10 gets underway.

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 46.5) at Miami Dolphins

Market report from Chris Andrews: I opened Baltimore -7.5 and decided to move to -8 with very little action. I’m anticipating the market because Baltimore is much more likely to be the public betting choice rather than Miami. Plus, a lot of sharps and recreational bettors will be looking to tease the Ravens down through the 7 and the 3. From my perspective, it’s better to have those teasers on Baltimore -2 rather than -1.5. No interest yet on Miami + 8. That tells me I’m probably correct in anticipating direction between now and kickoff. Limited action so far on my opening total of 47. 

Burke: The spread has gone up and the total has gone down in advance of the Week 10 lid-lifter between the Ravens and Dolphins. Those types of line moves always interest me because I like to think about how the game will play out, and it is clear that there is no respect for Miami’s offense in this situation.

Baltimore has allowed a lot of yards after the catch this season and has really struggled to make tackles in the open field. Miami doesn’t seem like the offense to exploit that weakness based on the line movement that we’re seeing on the game.

Now that the Ravens are up over a touchdown, a teaser play on -7.5 going through the 3 and 7 corridor makes a ton of sense. The Browns are a great option to put on a Wong Teaser going up from + 1.5 to + 7.5, especially with a low-scoring expectation by NFL standards.

Pick: Ravens -1.5 teased with Browns + 7.5

Tuley: I usually jump on any NFL home underdog of more than a touchdown, but I’ve become more selective in recent years as they’ve cooled off. In this case, I wasn’t too impressed with the Dolphins’ 17-9 win over the Texans with Jacoby Brissett, and it appears he’s likely to be starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa again. In fact, regardless of who has been at QB, the Dolphins have been competitive only against teams with them at the bottom of the league (Falcons, Jaguars, Texans), but when they step up in class, they usually get rolled (35-0 by the Bills, 45-17 by the Buccaneers and 26-11 again by the Bills).

The Ravens do have a tendency to let teams stick around and you know I’m not going to lay 7.5 points, but I’ll start this week’s teaser portfolio as we can move the line down from Ravens -7.5 to -1.5. Other advantage combinations (that capture the key numbers of 3 and 7) I’m considering for NFL Week 10 include the Browns from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Patriots, Vikings from + 3 to + 9 at the Chargers, Eagles from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Broncos and Raiders + 2.5 to + 8.5 vs. the Chiefs.

Pick: Ravens -1.5 teased to several teams on Sunday

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