If you are discouraged about the number of people still alive in your NFL survivor pool, just wait. While this has been a season full of upsets in college football, it has been the polar opposite in the NFL. The biggest upset from a spread standpoint in the NFL has been + 7. That was the New York Giants over the New Orleans Saints 27-21 in Week 4. A big favorite will get knocked off, but it hasn’t happened yet. All of the most popular survivor teams won again in Week 7 and we head into Week 8 with a quartet of double-digit favorites.
To this point, I’m still alive as the author of the survivor article with picks on the Rams, Packers, Broncos, Bengals, Ravens, Cowboys and Patriots over the first seven weeks. The Games to Consider section improved to 20-3 on the season with last week’s results.
I’ve tried to make it a point to go with a less obvious team most weeks. That changes this week.
GAMES TO CONSIDER
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) over Houston Texans
The Rams were my Week 1 pick, so I won’t use them again unless I lose a game and have to start from scratch, but they’ll be a popular pick this week for those who have Sean McVay’s team available. The Texans are going back to Tyrod Taylor if he can make it through practice this week, but that won’t move the line much, if at all.
The stats leading up to the Lions-Rams matchup last week painted a very clear picture, and the same is true this week. The Rams are second in yards per play on offense and Houston is 30th. The Rams haven’t been quite as stout defensively as last season, ranking 14th in yards per play allowed, but Houston ranks just outside the bottom five in 27th.
The Rams have scored on 50.7 percent of their possessions; the Texans 24 percent of the time. Houston is slightly better than Detroit defensively but not good enough to make this game very competitive.
If you still have the Rams available, the other option to take them is Dec. 5 against Jacksonville at home. Given the other games in Week 13 and the other options this week, I’d hold off on the Rams until then if possible.