Scottie Scheffler held a five-stroke lead overnight on Friday. He expanded to a seven-stroke lead making the turn into Saturday's back nine; by the conclusion of Saturday's round, Scheffler's lead has been cut to three. The World No. 1 carded bogeys on three of his last five holes while Cameron Smith, who was recommended at 14-1 in-play last night, shot two-under on the back side to finish at -6 and just three shots back of the leader.
Here is the current leaderboard after 54 holes at The Masters:
|
1.
|
Scheffler
|
-9
|
-225
|
|
2.
|
Smith
|
-6
|
+ 275
|
|
3.
|
Im
|
-4
|
14-1
|
|
4.
|
Lowry
|
-2
|
60-1
|
|
4.
|
Schwartzel
|
-2
|
150-1
|
|
6.
|
Thomas
|
-1
|
75-1
|
|
6.
|
Conners
|
-1
|
180-1
|
|
8.
|
Willett
|
E
|
150-1
|
|
9.
|
Fleetwood
|
+ 1
|
1500-1
|
|
9.
|
Kokrak
|
+ 1
|
2000-1
|
|
9.
|
McIlroy
|
+ 1
|
500-1
|
|
9.
|
Morikawa
|
+ 1
|
600-1
|
|
9.
|
D. Johnson
|
+ 1
|
400-1
|
Note: Prices courtesy of DraftKings.
Obviously, there are few options to fade the leader if you want to cash an in-play outright winner. We have some good equity with Smith at 14-1 from Friday as he is now around 1/5th of that price. Lowry (50-1), Thomas (14-1) and McIlroy (20-1) were on my pre-tournament outrights card, but they are distant long shots to win the green jacket at this point.
The "Winner without Scheffler" market could be a place to attack from a wagering standpoint if you do not already have exposure in the futures markets (Smith leads that market at -220). If you want to swerve from the Australian favorite in this market, Justin Thomas at 14-1, Rory McIlroy at 50-1, or Tommy Fleetwood at 100-1 look to be the most potentially lucrative to have a low round tomorrow.
The easiest way to have action for Sunday's final round is likely the head-to-head matchup markets. Here a couple that are of interest to me:
Shane Lowry -115 over Sungjae Im
These two were paired together on Saturday. Both players started at -3 and after seven holes, Lowry stood at -5 and Im was at 1. Through 16 holes, both players were back where they started at -3. No. 17 was a two-shot swing, as Im posted a birdie and Lowry posted a bogey. Im continued his hot putting on the back nine, while Lowry's iron play was one of the worst in the field on Saturday (he ranked 49th out of 52 players and lost -2.42 strokes on approach). Lowry had some choice words for his caddie Brian "Bo" Martin on some mis-clubs and missed yardages. These two should get on the same page tomorrow as Im's putter could potentially cool off a bit.
Jon Rahm -125 over Patrick Cantlay
The No. 2 (Rahm) and No. 5 (Cantlay) players in the world have had disappointing weeks at Augusta and Saturday was no exception. Rahm shot 5-over and now sits at 7 (T-41st) while Cantlay was even worse -- shooting 7-over -- and now sits at 8 (T-45th). Only Tiger Woods, whose 38 putts in Round 3 where the most ever in his career on the PGA Tour, was worse putting on Saturday than Cantlay (Woods -4.88 SG: Putting; Cantlay -4.32). Ordinarily, I would want to play on Cantlay to have positive regression, but I will go with Rahm here. Rahm is well out of the tournament (as is Cantlay), but he will be paired with Woods and that is enough to motivate him to stay interested and engaged in competing.
Bubba Watson -145 over Tiger Woods
Watson and Woods both shot 6-over rounds of 78 on Saturday. Tiger was miserable on the greens and Bubba was miserable around the greens (-3.42 SG: Around The Green). The fatigue may also be getting to Tiger, having now played three rounds of competitive tournament golf for the first time since Nov. 2020. Both players are former Masters champions, so neither one will go through the motions in Sunday's final round. However, Tiger is obviously still not 100% physically and although the adrenaline plus the excitement of playing in front of massive galleries again carried him through two days, his body may not be able to match the mind and heart of a champion.
Here are the updated stats and metrics through Saturday's third round.
Strokes Gained Putting
1. Willett 2.92
2. Im 2.16
3. Min Woo Lee 1.97
4. Westwood 1.45
5. Scheffler 1.32
6. Hovland 1.27
7. Gooch 1.13
8. Swafford 1.10
9. Bezuidenhout/Si Woo Kim/Reed 1.06
12. Lowry 0.98
13. Spaun 0.79
14. Zalatoris 0.78
15. Fleetwood 0.72
Strokes Gained Around The Green
1. Leishman 1.93
2. Matsuyama 1.79
3. Conners 1.62
4. Lowry 1.45
5. Scheffler 1.19
6. Simpson 1.14
7. Hoge 1.13
8. D Johnson 1.12
9. Kokrak 1.04
10. Fleetwood 0.79
11. Morikawa 0.77
12. Smith 0.76
13. Im 0.68
14. McIlroy 0.67
15. Zalatoris 0.56
Strokes Gained Approach
1. Smith 3.15
2. Schwartzel 2.49
3. Garcia 2.32
4. Thomas 2.18
5. Higgs 1.90
6. Na/Scheffler 1.85
8. Kisner 1.84
9. Niemann 1.25
10. Conners 1.13
11. Si Woo Kim 1.11
12. McIlroy 1.04
13. Champ 1.03
14. Westwood 0.89
15. Berger 0.85
Strokes Gained Off The Tee
1. Lowry/Fitzpatrick 1.39
3. Fleetwood 1.25
4. Scheffler 0.97
5. Watson 0.94
6. McIlroy 0.93
7. Finau/Matsuyama/Hovland 0.89
10. Champ 0.87
11. Cantlay 0.81
12. Kokrak 0.76
13. Zalatoris 0.72
14. Morikawa 0.71
15. Power 0.63
16. Conners 0.60
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
1. Scheffler 4.01
2. Smith 3.65
3. Conners 3.34
4. Schwartzel 3.24
5. Leishman 2.82
6. McIlroy 2.64
7. Thomas 2.57
8. Matsuyama 2.56
9. Morikawa/Lowry 2.01
11. Higgs 1.98
12. D. Johnson 1.92
13. Simpson 1.64
14. Cantlay 1.59
15. Kokrak 1.54
Driving Distance
1. Champ 314.2
2. McIlroy 306.1
3. Fleetwood 302.8
4. Thomas/Garcia 301.9
6. Fitzpatrick 301.6
7. Min Woo Lee 301.3
8. Niemann 299.9
9. Scheffler 299.4
10. Rahm 298.8
11. Zalatoris 298.3
12. Im 297.6
13. Power 297.1
14. Matsuyama 297
Driving Accuracy
1. Glover 85.7%
2. Spaun/Henley/Lowry/Kokrak 83.3
6. Hovland/Na/Scheffler/Reed 81.0
10. Im/Morikawa/Hoge/Watson 78.6
Greens In Regulation
1. Schwartzel 75.9%
2. McIlroy 74.1
3. Scheffler 72.2
4. Garcia/Hatton 70.4
6. Conners/Champ/Leishman/Finau/Na/Henley 68.5
Scrambling
1. Fleetwood 75%
2. Scheffler 72
3. Lowry/Leishman 71.4
5. Gooch 70.8
6. Si Woo Kim 67.9
7. Conners/Straka/Power/Hatton 66.7
11. Reed/Thomas/MacIntyre/Matsuyama/Willett 65.5
16. Schwartzel/Smith 65.0
18. Zalatoris 64.3