Monday Night Football features the Seattle Seahawks on the road against the Washington Football Team to finish up what has been an exciting Week 12 in the NFL.
Our team of experts at VSiN has the game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along with a pick on the game from VSiN's Adam Burke and Ben Brown from Pro Football Focus.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (-1, 46.5)
Market report from Chris Andrews: I opened pick-em and sharps took Washington. I’ve been writing pretty even business since moving to Washington -1. My opening total of 46 has been bet up to 46.5. This isn’t the kind of Monday Night matchup (two losing teams) that’s going to draw heavy action during a loaded holiday weekend. Come game day, there will be interest because of what’s at stake. Seattle may be facing the end of the Pete Carroll era. Washington would have little chance of sneaking into the playoffs if a loss dropped its record to 4-7.
Burke: There are some in-game situations that will decide this matchup. The Seahawks are 31st in third-down conversion rate on offense and ninth in third-down defense. Washington is 17th in third-down offense, but dead last in the NFL in third-down defense. The Football Team’s offense is 31st in red zone touchdown percentage and Seattle’s defense entered this week in the top five, as opponents have only scored a touchdown on 20 of 40 red zone trips.
Rather than look at a side play, it may make more sense to look at the total. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 23 points in any of the last five games. The defense is a decent unit, allowing 5.5 yards per play, along with the aforementioned red zone success. Washington’s defense has had some rough games, but also held the Buccaneers to 19 points last week and performed well against the Packers a few weeks ago.
The total has ticked down a little bit, but not far enough to stay away from what has the potential to be a low-scoring, sloppy game.
Pick: Under 46.5
Gibson has had an underwhelming sophomore season for Washington, as his 65.1 rush grade ranks just 53rd among all running backs with at least 25 carries and has only gone over this 70.5 number just twice in 10 games this season.
Facing a Seahawks front seven that ranks third in the NFL in run defense grade this season, Gibson will likely have a tough time gaining chunk yardage, especially with Washington right tackle Sam Cosmi (83.1 run blocking grade) likely out with a hip injury.
According to PFF’s Player Props Tool, Gibson has just a 42.3% chance to rush for 71 or more yards, making this a positive expected value bet as both a solo ticket or as part of a same game parlay.
Pick: Gibson under 70.5 rushing yards -115