Best Monday Night Football bets: Raiders-Chargers

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

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The Las Vegas Raiders travel to Los Angeles to play in another exciting Monday Night Football game.

Our team of experts at VSiN has the game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along with a pick on the game from VSiN's Adam Burke and Dave Tuley and a prop bet from Ben Brown of Pro Football Focus.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 52.5)

Market report from Chris Andrews: This could generate the biggest handle for a Monday night game all season. Obviously, the Raiders are bet heavily here in Vegas, but the Chargers have a strong following as well.

My opener of Chargers -3.5 was bet down to a field goal. I’m writing very good business both ways on the 3, and I expect we’ll stick there. Three seems like a good settling point in this market. Through the weekend, other shops were charging -115 or -120 vig to lay 3 with the Chargers; everything’s 11-10 at the South Point, so I stood pat. My opening total of 53 has been bet all the way down to 51.5. The public will probably bet Over from now until kickoff. If you like the Over, get in now before the number rises. If you like the Under but missed out on higher numbers, patience should pay off later Monday. 

Tuley: The Raiders are tied for first place in the AFC West with the Broncos at 3-0. The advance line was Chargers -3 last week and it reopened at -3 on Sunday, but early money has pushed it to 3.5 as bettors apparently are putting more stock in the Chargers’ upset of the Chiefs. However, if you ask me, the Raiders have actually been more impressive in their wins over the Ravens, Steelers and Dolphins, and Derek Carr has the offense topping the league at 471 yards per game. This should be a shootout and come down to the final possession, so I really like getting 3.5 points.

Pick: Raiders + 3.5

Burke: If you like smash-mouth football and defense, Monday Night Football is probably not for you this week. The Chargers host the Raiders in a battle of two of the pass-happy teams in the NFL. With good reason. Carr and the Raiders have thrown for nearly 380 yards per game and the Chargers are up above three bills per contest as well.

The Chargers have thrown on 65.2 percent of their offensive plays and the Raiders have thrown on 64 percent of theirs. These are not teams that have been throwing because they trail all the time, like the Jaguars, Jets or Falcons. These are teams that are throwing a lot because they have to play to the strengths of the offense.

This total may be inflated slightly because prime-time overs were 8-1 going into Week 4, but also because these two offenses look a bit better than expected. The difference between Anthony Lynn’s staff and Brandon Staley’s staff has been night and day for the Chargers, who have also been more aggressive in going for fourth-down situations. The Raiders are loaded with offensive speed and Carr has been the benefactor.

The Raiders are fourth in yards per catch and Carr ranks seventh in intended air yards. The Chargers don’t go vertical as much, but throw with such volume that their passing numbers are solid, ranking 10th in completion percentage and fourth in yards.

The two teams rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in percentage of drives ending in points, with the Chargers at 50 percent and the Raiders at 48.6 percent. The Chargers have the most red zone trips with 15, but have only scored seven touchdowns, so that should improve going forward. The Raiders have 13 with seven TDs.

It may come down to red zone efficiency here, but we should have the yardage for an over.

Pick: Over 52.5

Brown: Justin Herbert quickly silenced doubters after a Week 2 performance that saw him throw three interceptions and only one touchdown against a Cowboys defense that was decimated by injuries. Herbert orchestrated an upset victory over division rival Kansas City and accounted for four touchdowns while having zero turnover-worthy plays. He ranks sixth in PFF’s passing grade through the first three weeks of the season, even though he has only eclipsed this touchdown number once. 

Las Vegas has exceeded expectations to start the season on both the offensive and defensive sides. The Raiders are 11th in our opponent-adjusted defensive grades, sitting 16 places better than the 27th-ranked Chargers. All indications point toward a ton of points being scored on Monday night. The Raiders front seven has been the real story of their success, with their coverage unit ranking 21st in overall coverage grade. The lone bright spot has been free agent acquisition Casey Hayward Jr, as Trayvon Mullen has struggled to start the season.

 

Herbert should pick apart this secondary, and if this game turns into an offensive showcase, easily go over his passing touchdown prop at a plus price offering.

Pick: Justin Herbert Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+ 167)

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