Best Monday Night Football bets: Patriots-Bills

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

December 6, 2021 10:00 AM
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Monday Night Football features the New England Patriots on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills to complete an exciting Week 13 in the NFL.

Our team of experts at VSiN has the game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along with a pick on the game from VSiN's Wes Reynolds and Ben Brown from Pro Football Focus.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3, 41)

Market Report from Chris Andrews: I opened Buffalo -3. After taking a lot of play on the Patriots, I dropped to Buffalo -2.5. I also took respected money-line bets on the Patriots at + 135 and + 130 to win outright. After the drop to Buffalo -2.5, bettors preferring the Bills were thrilled to lay less than a field goal. This is another game where the South Point’s “no extra juice” policy on NFL team sides will drive a very high handle. Most stores will vary their vig at either 2.5 or 3. We’ll be offering 11/10 whether we’re at 2.5 or 3. I’m interested to see if a more certain weather forecast on game day drives money in one direction or the other. Weather expectations caused a big drop in the total. My opener of 45 is all the way down to 42.5, and that will fall further if winds prove to be as gusty Monday as forecast.

Reynolds: An anti-public favorite in prime time on Monday Night Football here as the underdog Patriots have taken all the early support and have been touted by the national media all week. They will continue to be pumped up due to a 6-0 SU and ATS winning streak. 

The Bills were the overwhelming AFC East favorite to begin the season and now find themselves in the chaser role, a half game back of New England. A six-game winning streak is a six-game winning streak and you never apologize for wins in NFL, but New England has wins over the Jets, Panthers and Falcons (all sub-.500 teams) – and two other wins against the Browns and the Titans, who are two of the most-injured teams in the league. 

The Patriots are a bit overrated here and this will be Mac Jones’s first game in inclement weather. The Bills have failed to put back-to-back good performances together since the Week 5 win in Kansas City on Sunday Night Football and have been the ultimate high-variance team despite playing an easier schedule.

Nevertheless, this is a sell-high spot on the Patriots, and a buy-low on the small favorite Bills.

Pick: Bills -140 ML

Brown: Weather concerns continue to drop the game total on Monday night, after an opening of 44.5 dropped three points down to 41.5. The weather concerns have also trickled over into the prop market, with Mac Jones seeing his lowest passing yardage prop of the season by 15 yards. His completion number dropped slightly, but is only two lower than his previous week number. If the weather fulfills the current expectation, then we should be dealing with temperatures below freezing, snow showers and winds up to 20 mph.

That does not sound like a recipe for passing game success, especially for a rookie signal-caller facing off against a top-five defensive unit. 

Jones hasn’t exactly exceeded betting market expectations in this prop category previously, sitting with a .500 record so far in 2021. He is below league-average in aDot (average depth of target) and despite being the best rookie quarterback in 2021, still sits outside the top 10 in PFF’s accuracy metric this season. Everything points toward a ground-and-pound attack on Monday night, which should result in an easy victory on Jones’ under completion number. This looks like a spot to buy in early, if weather concerns come close to meeting current expectations.

Pick: QB Mac Jones under 19.5 completions

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