Best Monday Night Football bets: NY Giants-Chiefs

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

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Monday Night Football features the New York Giants on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs to finish up what has been an exciting Week 8 in the NFL.

Our team of experts at VSiN has the game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along with picks on the game from VSiN's Dave Tuley, Adam Burke and Ben Brown from Pro Football Focus.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 52) 

Market report from Chris Andrews: I opened Kansas City -10. The Giants have been getting sharp respect all season. A couple of bettors bought it up to + 10.5 for large wagers. I dropped to 9.5 for a few days. I moved back to KC -10 over the weekend when RB Saquon Barkley and WR Kenny Golladay were declared out for the Giants. Sharps laid the 9.5. The public is still laying -10. Very little play so far on my opening total of 52.

Tuley: The Super Bowl loser hangover continues to haunt the Chiefs. Now they’re installed as 10-point home favorites on “Monday Night Football” against the Giants, who improved to only 2-5 after their 25-3 rout of the Panthers.

Still, that result, combined with the Chiefs’ 27-3 loss to the Titans, caused this line to go from Chiefs -13 on the advance line last week to just -10 earlier in the week. I think it’s a valid adjustment as New York impressed me with its win Sunday, even though it was against the reeling Panthers. Besides, even when the Chiefs were the betting world’s darlings, they still weren’t covering spreads.

I look for a close game with the Giants at least covering the spread. They could pull the upset if the Chiefs don’t protect Patrick Mahomes and he doesn’t stop turning the ball over.

Pick: Giants + 10 (grab it if you can before it drops)

Burke: The Chiefs don’t really have much of a running game in the absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who will once again be sidelined as he recovers from a sprained MCL suffered against Buffalo. In the two games since, Darrel Williams has had 26 carries for 82 yards. Jerick McKinnon might see more snaps this week and could be a decent look for Rush + Rec yards props if you see a book with them posted.

Rather than dig around for McKinnon stuff, I’ll look at something widely available, which is Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards. This is a pretty low number given that he has exceeded it the last five games and by a pretty decent margin in four of them. The Kansas City is trying to get him to take better care of the football and pulling it down and running may be the best way to do that.

Mahomes is such a quick and smart runner that it won’t take a lot of volume to get over this low total. It is also going to be a pretty poor night to throw the football with temperatures around 40 and a wind chill slightly below. Grip may be a bit of an issue and Mahomes has already been turning the ball over, so he may be under strict orders to take off and run whenever possible.

Pick: Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards

Brown: Over the last four weeks, Tyreek Hill has averaged 8.25 receptions per game for a Chiefs offense that has notoriously been inconsistent, especially for Mahomes-led offense.

PFF’s player props tool likes a condensed target share for Kansas City on Monday night. The model expectation is that Hill has a lot of the success in the slot for the Chiefs passing attack. James Bradberry is by far the best cover cornerback in the Giants’ secondary, but he hasn’t played in a shadow game situation since Week 4. He also hasn’t moved into the slot for coverage, as he saw only five coverage snaps against Cooper Kupp in Week 6. 

According to PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart, Hill is projected to line up across from Giants cornerback Darnay Holmes for 53 percent of snaps -- a mismatch in favor of Hill. Holmes’ 49.1 coverage grade this season ranks 154th among all cornerbacks. Additionally, Holmes’ 4.48 40 yard dash time, while not slow, isn’t ideal for guarding the best deep threat in the NFL.

Not only has Hill gone over in four of seven weeks, but PFF’s Player Props Tool projects Hill to record 6.6 receptions in this game and gives him a 62.3 percent chance of covering and catching at least seven passes.

Pick: WR Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions -118

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