Monday Night Football features the New York Giants on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish up what has been an exciting Week 11 in the NFL.
Our team of experts at VSiN has the game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along with a pick on the game from VSiN's Adam Burke and Ben Brown from Pro Football Focus.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11, 50.5)
Market Report from Chris Andrews: No change through the weekend. I’ve been at Tampa Bay -11 since we opened. My opening total of 50.5 was quickly bet down to 50 several days ago, and it’s been sitting there since. We head into Monday knowing that some sharps are taking the Giants + 11, while others are waiting to see if they can get more. The public has already been using Tampa Bay quite a bit in teasers and money-line parlays to win straight up. They want to root for Tom Brady coming off two bad games. We’ll find out Monday if public action will be so heavy it drives the spread higher.
Youmans: It has been nearly a month since the Buccaneers won a game -- 38-3 over the Bears on Oct. 24 before a loss at New Orleans, a bye and a loss at Washington -- so Tom Brady is likely to bounce back and find the win column. I’m not calling for the upset, but I will call for the ‘dog to cover. The Giants are most dangerous as road ‘dogs, going 23-7 ATS in their past 30 in the role, including 19-4 since 2018.
The New York defense has displayed recent improvement, allowing a total of 39 points in the past three games. There are reasons to be optimistic on the other side of the ball, too, despite the offense ranking 24th in scoring at 19.9 points per game. Running back Saquon Barkley is expected to return from injury, along with left tackle Andrew Thomas. In the middle of last season, the Giants were 13-point home dogs in a 25-23 loss to Tampa Bay; this could be a similar outcome.
Pick: Giants + 11
Tuley: The advance line was Buccaneers -12.5 last week before they were upset 29-19 by Washington. Despite the downward adjustment, I’m still on the Giants as I have this line as closer to a touchdown. The Bucs aren’t as dominant as everyone expected them to be in defense of their title and they’re a woeful 3-6 ATS as they failed to cover in wins over the Cowboys, Patriots and Eagles in addition to their upset losses to the Rams, Saints and Washington. The Giants, while only 3-6, have been competitive in most games, including losing just 30-29 to that same Football Team and covering in losses to the Saints and Chiefs. New York is hoping to get Barkley back, which should provide a spark against a Tampa defense that is suddenly looking vulnerable after allowing 36 to the Saints and 29 to Washington. Give me the points.
Pick: Giants + 11
Brown: Leonard Fournette’s eight catches in Week 10 was the highest reception number he has cleared in his two seasons with the Buccaneers. Oddsmakers have immediately responded, adding a full reception to his prop number and shifting the juice heavily toward the under. This looks like an overreaction since Fournette has cleared his reception total in five of nine games this season. He is barely above breakeven if you bet his over reception prop number blindly.
It’s easy to see that the performance in Washington is more of an outlier than an established trend going forward. For one, the game script on Monday night won’t be conducive to high target volume for Fournette: He has seen 40% of his targets when the Buccaneers have been trailing, but only 36% of their offensive snaps have been while playing from behind. Monday night is setting up as a get-right spot for the Tampa Bay offense a 10.5-point favorite. If this expectation holds, then Fournette will be relatively quiet through the air in Week 11.
Pick: Fournette under 4.5 receptions