The Philadelphia Eagles host the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football this week.
Wes Reynolds and Matt Youmans preview the game and break down their best bets.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 48.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Reynolds: The Seahawks (7-3 SU; 6-4 ATS) come into Monday Night fresh with ten days in between games having played on November 19th defeating Arizona 28-21 on Thursday Night Football. Seattle is currently tied for the lead in the NFC West with the Los Angeles Rams (Rams won the first meeting in Week 10, second meeting in Seattle for Week 16).
Meanwhile, the Eagles (3-6-1 SU; 3-7 ATS) have fallen from first place in the NFC East after the Washington Football Team won at Dallas, 41-16 on Thanksgiving. The Eagles could regain first place with a victory tonight but are reeling after losing two straight in New York and Cleveland in back-to-back weeks.
Philadelphia's offensive woes continued last week in Cleveland as they could only muster 17 points and Carson Wentz threw two more interceptions and he now has 23 total turnovers (9 fumbles, 14 interceptions) on the season. Granted, the constant shuffling on the Eagles offensive line (40 sacks allowed) due to injuries has played a significant part as Philadelphia will start its tenth different group up front in its eleventh game tonight. That line will have to hold up against a resurgent Seattle pass rush that has amassed 16 sacks in the last four games. Nevertheless, it is painfully obvious that the Carson Wentz of 2017 is long in the past as he leads the league in interceptions here in 2020 and ranks 31st in the NFL for Passer Rating (73.3).
According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles rate 30th in the NFL for Offensive DVOA. Russell Wilson's MVP candidacy is still very viable sitting at only 3/1 on average in the betting markets behind Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, who is priced as the favorite at 4/5. Wilson is completing 70.7 percent of his passes and has thrown for 2,986 yards and 30 touchdowns. Seattle does not have problems offensively as the Seahawks have the second-highest scoring offense in the league (31.8 ppg) and 4th in Offensive DVOA.
This is not to say that Seattle does not have its issues. They certainly have them on the defensive side of the ball as they rank dead last in both total yards allowed (434.9 ypg) and passing yards allowed (343.7 ypg), and rank 28th in points allowed (28.7 ppg). Only Jacksonville, Detroit, the Jets and Dallas allow more points than the Seahawks. Cornerback Shaquill Griffin is back this week for Seattle from concussion protocol and his return can only help matters, but the Seahawks defense could perhaps be the cure to the Eagles offensive troubles so something will have to give.
The trends favor Seattle here tonight as the Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten November games and 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 under the Monday Night lights. Meanwhile, the Eagles are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall games and 3-7 ATS in their last ten at “The Linc”. Seattle has been receiving around 90 percent of both the ticket and money counts per PointsBet USA. The line opened Seattle -5.5 and has been bet up to -6, but the has yet to go above that which indicates that there are likely some professional dollars showing resistance at the current number as the betting public is and will continue to be all over the Seahawks side. Seattle was also the second most popular pick in the Circa Sports Million II contest behind the Las Vegas Raiders for Week 12.
As far as the total goes, it opened at 53 and while the majority of the tickets are on the over, the number has dropped to 48.5 likely due to the expected weather forecast indicating a wet evening tonight in Philadelphia.
This matchup is shaping up to be a proverbial “pros vs. joes” type of game and sportsbooks across the country will need the Eagles tonight. Most bettors have seemed to give up on Philadelphia as they were backed as 4.5-point road favorites in New York, and then backed as 2.5-point road underdogs the following week. Both results were losses straight up and against the spread. When everyone else has thrown in the towel, is it time to come in at the bottom of the market with Philadelphia?
Youmans: It’s tough to show support for Philadelphia’s clumsy coach-quarterback combo of Doug Pederson and Wentz, but this looks like a decent spot. Wentz leads the NFL in two ignominious categories — interceptions (14) and sacks (40) — yet he’s still got the talent to occasionally show up and play at a high level. It should help Wentz that tight end Zach Ertz is expected to return from a four-game absence with an ankle injury. What else will help Wentz? Seattle has the worst pass defense in the league.
Russell Wilson tends to lead the Seahawks to victory in tight games, and he could do the same here, but this is probably a three-point decision one way or the other. The Eagles are 2-1 in their past three home games, with the loss by two points to the Ravens. The home ‘dog is live tonight, believe it or not.
Pick: Eagles 6.5