Best Monday Night Football bets: Eagles-Cowboys

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

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The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Dallas to play in the third Monday Night Football game of the 2021-22 NFL season.

Our team of experts at VSiN has the game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along with a pick on the game from VSiN's Adam Burke and a prop bet from Ben Brown of Pro Football Focus.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 51.5)

Market report from Chris Andrews: We’ll do a ton of business on this game by kickoff. The Cowboys bring out the lovers … and the haters. Philadelphia does as well to a lesser extent. My opener of Dallas -4 has come down to -3.5. Over the weekend, the market started trending more toward the Eagles. Many stores adjusted their vigorish. You had to lay -120 to take Philly + 3.5 (lay $120 to win $100, or anything in that ratio). You could get Dallas -3.5 at even money (risk $100 to win $100).

Here at the South Point, we don’t change the vig. I’m still at 3.5 with -110 both ways. If we get more Eagles money, I’ll have to think about coming down to the key number of three. Total hasn’t moved off my opener of 51.5. 

Burke: The Cowboys have become a pass-first offense. Dak Prescott didn’t throw as much in last week’s win over the Chargers, but Dallas led that game 14-3 after the first quarter and held a lead throughout. That put the ball in the hands of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard more often. Dallas also had a lot more success with the run than we’ve seen in most games.

That felt like an outlier performance for Kellen Moore as a playcaller and also the two backs for the Cowboys. Prescott’s 27 pass attempts were tied for the second fewest in a full game since the start of the 2019 season.

Maybe Dallas jumps ahead and gets out to a nice lead here as well, but the likelihood is that Prescott throws more often. The line for pass attempts is set at 36.5 and it is a number that Prescott has gone over in 12 of his last 19 games, with one of those games being the one where he suffered that gruesome ankle injury. His average of the last 19 games, even with that early exit, is nearly 41 pass attempts per game.

Pick: Dak Prescott Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

With Prescott likely to throw a lot in this one, red zone targets should be available for the receivers. Amari Cooper has five of the 13 red zone targets on the season. His First TD Scorer price is + 900 and that seems to be worth a look in this game. We’ve got a total in the 50s, so it should be high-scoring and the Cowboys will look to throw to set up the run later in the game.

Pick: Amari Cooper First TD Scorer (+ 900)

Brown: Through two weeks, the Cowboys seem intent on splitting the pass-catching workload between Dalton Schultz and fellow TE Blake Jarwin. Aside from playing 30 percent of their offensive snaps in 12 personnel, both Jarwin and Shultz have eight targets from Dak Prescott and neither has played more than 73 percent of snaps in any game this season. Schultz has a slightly higher snap percentage, but has only ran one more route than Jarwin.

The Eagles defense has also been stifling through two weeks against opposing tight ends – their 80.7 coverage grade versus the position currently ranks third in the NFL entering Sunday’s games. In what is expected to be a slower-paced game -- similar to what the Cowboys played last week -- there simply won't be enough opportunities for Schultz to get many receptions. Expect his target share at 8.5 percent to hold and him to finish well under on his receptions total for Monday night.

Pick: Dalton Schultz under 2.5 receptions + 117

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