Best Monday Night Football bets: Dolphins-Saints

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

December 27, 2021 07:00 AM
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Monday Night Football features the Miami Dolphins on the road to take on the New Orleans Saints to complete an exciting Week 16 in the NFL.

Our team of experts at VSiN has the game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along with a pick on the game from VSiN's Adam Burke.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 37) at New Orleans Saints

Andrews: This favorite flipped because Ian Book will be forced to start for New Orleans. I had opened Saints -3, and the first bet was on the Dolphins from a sharp who got in ahead of the news. I took the game off the board for awhile and re-opened pick-em. Sharps took Miami at pick-em, -1 and -1.5 (one of my biggest players laid -1.5). I skipped 2 and went straight to Miami -2.5. In Sunday’s late-afternoon session, money finally drove the game to the key number of 3. We’ll find out Monday if anybody wants a part of this home 'dog or not. I dropped my opening total of 39 down to 38 on the Book news without any bets. Sharp money drove that down to 37.5 right away, then to 37 late Sunday.

Burke: Everything seems to be coming up Dolphins for Monday Night Football and the line certainly reflects that, as the Dolphins are -2.5 or -3 across the market. The Saints will be without Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian (both on COVID list), so Book will make his first NFL start. New Orleans reportedly reached out to Philip Rivers and Drew Brees to give you an idea of how dire the situation is.

After a 1-7 start, the Dolphins have won six in row. They’ve beaten a lot of bad teams in that stretch, but are firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture. While this game should go in the win column, especially with the Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle tandem on fire, the Dolphins are still a team that has only averaged 4.8 yards per play on the season. They’ve scored at least 20 points in five straight, but the Saints still have a quality defense. Recent opponents, except for Carolina, have not.

Jumping on Miami to fade Book makes sense, but so does playing the under. The Dolphins are still 24th in points per drive, 26th in percentage of possessions ending with a score and are one of three teams averaging fewer than five yards per play. The Saints are fifth in points per drive allowed and seventh in percentage of possessions ending with points.

It’s a low total at 37.5, but maybe not low enough.

Pick: Under 37.5

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PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

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