The Buffalo Bills travel to Tennessee to play in another exciting Monday Night Football game.
Our team of experts at VSiN has the game covered from all angles, with a market report from South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews, along with picks on the game from VSiN's Wes Reynolds and Adam Burke.
Buffalo Bills (-6, 53.5) at Tennessee Titans
Market report from Chris Andrews: Another prime-time game where we will be rooting for the dog because the public is all over the favorite against the spread, in teasers and in money-line parlays. Worse, this game is a “bridge” to next week. The public can include Buffalo in teasers and/or parlays with next week’s matchups. My opener of Buffalo -5 was bet up to 5.5, then 6. Sharps started taking the dog at Tennessee + 6, but the public keeps betting Buffalo every which way. More teasers than money-line play so far. Not much action yet at my opening total of 54.
Reynolds: The Bills look like the top team in the NFL and are at No. 1 in my own personal power ratings. They dominated the Chiefs in Arrowhead last Sunday night, but were + 4 in turnover margin.
Tennessee, although outgained 454-368, easily covered as 4.5-point road favorites 37-19 at Jacksonville. The Titans also have received positive news with receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, who has missed the last two games, both being full participants in practice along with their major offseason acquisition, edge rusher Bud Dupree.
Buffalo was able to stop Kansas City’s running game with just its front four. The Bills will not be able to do that against Derrick Henry.
In a rare Tuesday night game last season, the Titans crushed the Bills in Nashville last season, 42-16. The revenge factor is already priced in the number. The lookahead line was just Buffalo -2.5 and went as high as -6 earlier in the week. That is a major adjustment now six weeks into the season where the lines certainly have less variance than earlier on in the season.
Pick: Titans + 6
Burke: The Bills have really looked great lately, but let’s pump the brakes a little bit on this team. During this four-game winning streak, Buffalo is + 12 in turnover margin. The Chiefs have been uncharacteristically careless with the football and the Dolphins and Texans are simply terrible offenses. Washington’s offense isn’t bad, but the Football Team was -3 in turnovers.
The Titans aren’t the greatest of teams, and certainly aren’t the greatest of defenses, but still represent an upgrade over most of what the Bills have faced this season. Tennessee’s offense is better than the 5.3 yards per play we’ve seen so far and the returns of Brown and Jones will give the team a different dynamic in the passing game.
The Bills haven’t faced a good rushing offense yet. Nobody comes close to matching what Henry can do anyway, but this will be a stiff test for the rush defense and the returning wide receivers will keep the Bills from just being able to load the box.
Tennessee is in line for some positive regression offensively, as only 13 of 23 red zone trips have resulted in touchdowns. Master play caller Art Smith is gone, but last year’s team wasn’t second in that department solely because of play design. Personnel matters, too, and the Titans are getting some key pieces back in this game.
Tennessee’s defense is obviously the major worry, but the backdoor should be open and a steady diet of Henry should be enough to keep Buffalo from running away and hiding.
Pick: Tennessee Titans + 6