We finally ended the unders curse on the VSiN EPL BetCast last week when the over cashed for only the second time this season, as Manchester United came from behind to beat West Ham 3-1.
This week’s BetCast features United again when they host their arch-rivals and neighbors Manchester City (kick-off Saturday 12:30 ET).
This is a huge match for both clubs not only for bragging rights but for their title aspirations, and for the future of United manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. The United boss is under big pressure following his side’s exit from the Champions League in midweek and he must get something from this match to keep him off the Old Trafford hot seat.
Whenever Solskjaer has need a performance he has always got one from his players and despite being in a higher position in the EPL table, they are amazingly the 330 outsiders to win this match despite having home advantage.
City come into this match in their best form of the season with three very comfortable wins, but the opposition was Burnley, Fulham and an average Marseille side that had nothing at all to play for when they visited the Ethiad in midweek.
City are priced at -136 for the win on Saturday which looks a price that I wouldn't be interested in at all.
The encouraging thing for City manager Pep Guardiola is that his side have kept three consecutive clean sheets and with so much riding on this match for Solskjaer, he might decide to treat this match with caution as going toe-to-toe with City is a very dangerous tactic.
United did the double over City last year, winning both of their EPL matches, but this season their home form has been dreadful and I think the match markets can be overlooked.
Recent matches between these two rivals have been rather closer than expected and seeing as it's a local derby and both are desperate for the win I believe this will be a tight match and not the classic we are hoping for. In preparation for that disappointment, I believe that the BetCast will head back to its norm this weekend and my only pre-match play is on the under 2.5 goals in the match which is available now at a rather generous looking 130.
BEST OF THE REST
My main bet in the EPL is on Sunday kick-off 9:15 ET and I just have to take -125 on Tottenham when they travel across London to face Crystal Palace.
Spurs are on fire at the moment, sitting top of the Premier League after just one defeat (on the opening day) and have the meanest defense in the division. Jose Mourinho's side are the masters of winning ugly, winning five of their last six Premier League matches without conceding and the stats followers and computer algorithms are the reason why you can get -125 on the Spurs win.
Tottenham under Mourinho give away a lot of possession but they are virtually impossible to break down. Their expected goals average is extremely low each game, but with Kane and Son they are clinical when chances arrive.
Tottenham travelled to Palace on the final day of last season and Spurs although held to a 1-1 draw in that match started the game at -225 and since then Tottenham have improved greatly with Palace around the same rating mark and yet Spurs are -125 this weekend. I like them to win.