It’s Week 5 of the VSiN EPL Betcast and amazingly every match that we have broadcast has seen under 2.5 goals cash. Surely that trend has to stop on Saturday when Premier League champions Liverpool host West Ham at Anfield?
The under 2.5 goals in this match is not surprisingly the underdog on the goals market at 200, which looks a fair price to me considering that Liverpool haven't been firing on all cylinders so far this season and West Ham are without their main striker -- and only real goal threat -- Michail Antonio for six weeks.
The statistics though point to over 2.5 at -250 as that has cashed in the last five Premier League meetings in this fixture, but with Liverpool having to travel to Italy to take on Atalanta in a huge Champions League clash on Tuesday, I would expect Jurgen Klopp to be rather cautious in his approach to this one and try to protect players for midweek and not get any other players on an ever-growing treatment table.
Liverpool are -240 for the win , which will be their fourth success on the bounce, but the 7-2 thrashing at Aston Villa is still very much in my mind and that is putting me off playing them at the very short odds. All the money in the build-up to this match in the UK has been for West Ham with their odds coming in from 800 to 650, but without Antonio I can't see where they will get the goals from and I think that is a bad wager.
I believe that this is very hard to predict pre-match and all the value will be on the in-play markets, so that is why it's essentially listening to the Betcast especially as we gave eight winning in-play bets last week on the Manchester United match in the 0-0 draw at Old Trafford.
Last week the match was played in torrential rain and the forecast tomorrow is for more rain, which will make the goals hard to come by again. I have a small lean on Liverpool to do a professional and efficient job on the Hammers and I would suggest two very small plays on Liverpool to win by a 1-0 correct score at 900 and a 2-0 correct-score at 800.
BEST OF THE REST
There are two other plays that interest me on the Premier League card and the first in on Saturday at 11 a.m. ET when Chelsea travel to Burnley.
Chelsea have finally looked good defensively (four clean sheets in their last five matches) and they travel to a struggling Burnley squad, which just can't score goals (shut out in four of their last five matches). It's not a surprise to see Chelsea at -200 for this match, but what is a surprise is that there is opposition to Frank Lampard's side and all the money in the last couple of days has come for the draw ( 350) and Burnley ( 500). I disagree with that market move, but I also couldn't bet Chelsea at -200 especially with a Champions League match on Wednesday against Rennes. I just can't see how Burnley will score in this match. They have already been beaten 1-0 at home to Southampton and Tottenham in recent weeks and a 1-0 Chelsea win is appealing at 700 as is a 2-0 correct score for The Blues' at the same price 700.
On Sunday, Tottenham host Brighton at the Tottenham Stadium and the home side are the best bet in the Premier League this week at -162.
Spurs put in a disappointing Europa League performance on Thursday losing 1-0 at Royal Antwerp, but coach Jose Mourinho made 10 changes for that match and he will be at full strength for this one. Tottenham have arguably the best front three in the Premier League with Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Gareth Bale and I would expect them to run riot against a Brighton side that are missing their influential captain and main central defender Lewis Dunk, who is suspended for this match.