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Best bets for VSiN's BetCast: Leeds-Aston Villa

By Nigel Seeley  (VSiN.com) 

Can you believe it? Despite an early goal, it was yet another VSiN EPL BetCast where under 2.5 goals cashed when Everton went to Anfield and beat champions and city rivals Liverpool 2-0. 

This week, the goals have to come when Leeds host Aston Villa at Elland Road on Saturday, kick-off 12:30 p.m. EST.

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Back in October, the two sides met both towards the top end of the Premier League table and it was Leeds who came back to Yorkshire with maximum points after a one-sided 3-0 win at Villa Park. Leeds are + 120 to get a season double over Villa, but before you call in that bet I think we should wait until the full teams are announced.

Villa come into this match with a huge injury concern for their captain and talisman England midfielder Jack Grealish, who missed their 2-1 home defeat against Leicester last week. If Grealish doesn't play in this match, then Leeds would be a recommendation, but with him in the side they are more than capable of getting a result and I would hold placing any wagers before the teams are announced on Saturday morning. I don't believe there is a single player in the EPL who is more important to his side than Grealish, so even if we have to take a lesser price if he isn't passed fit, it's worth the wait.

No side have improved more this season from last year's form than Villa, but there have been signs in recent weeks that they are tiring as their form has dipped from the high levels set at the start of the campaign. Villa have lost six of their last 11 matches and it's hard to make a case for them on current form at around + 220, especially as they were comfortably beaten by Leeds in the reverse fixture. 

The big question for bettors is: Can we trust Leeds?

Will the Leeds team that beat Southampton 3-0 last week show up or will it be the Leeds side that lost their two matches before that? 

I don't believe that there is a more inconsistent side this season then Marcelo Beilsa's Leeds, but I would lean towards the home side if the pre-match team-news was to their advantage.

Although we have had a barren run of goals in this BetCast 12:30 kick-off slot all season, it has to change at some stage and these two teams set up perfectly for what we hope is going to be an entertaining matchup. 

My best bet in this one is … over 2.5 goals, which looks a nice play at -162 for the bigger bettors amongst you and I also like both teams to score "yes" as both teams play in a style that produces goal-scoring opportunities. Still, that wager looks on the low side at -200 so for some better value alternatives and for smaller bettors a 2-1 Leeds win and a 3-1 Leeds win at + 800 and + 1400 have some appeal.

In the goal-scoring markets it's impossible to oppose both teams main strikers with Patrick Bamford leading the line for Leeds with 13 EPL goals this season and Ollie Watkins the main goal threat for Villa also in double figures for the season with 10. Both players will be keen to impress and try to end the season on a high which may force their way into contention for the England squad with the European Championships approaching in the summer. I like both these young talented English strikers to score on Saturday with Bamford available at + 125 to score at anytime in the match and Watkins at + 175.

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