The VSiN EPL BetCast returns this week with a London derby between Fulham and Chelsea on Saturday, kickoff 12:30 ET.
Just eight miles separates these two teams in West London but the gulf in the Premier League table is much wider with Chelsea sitting nine places higher and 14 points better off in the standings. On current form, there is little between the two sides, though, and at a huge price like + 550, I give Fulham a real chance of getting the win in this one. At those odds, the Cottagers are well worth a bit of pizza money to emerge victorious.
Scott Parker's side started the new season poorly and look destined for an immediate return to the Championship, but after some very astute transfer business Fulham are holding their own in the Premier League and were much the better side in Wednesday's 1-1 draw at Tottenham.
The point at Spurs' was Fulham's six successive draw and that is a concern if taking either side to win and at + 300 the tie in this match will be a popular choice with Bettors.
After a bright start to the season, Chelsea have gone backwards in recent weeks. The Blues have just one Premier League win in their last six matches, which has seen them fall off the pace in the race for the title. The poor run has seen rookie manager Frank Lampard installed as the bookies’ favorite in the UK to be the next manager to lose his job.
This is a huge match for both sides for different reasons and it looks the perfect time to face Chelsea. My best wager in this match is to take Fulham + 1 goal on the Asian handicap with the match a push if Chelsea win by a one goal margin and the only way of losing is on Chelsea to win by a two goals or greater. All other match outcomes and we cash.
We broke the rule of betting the unders in the total goals market a fortnight ago when Brighton and Wolves played out a 3-3 classic, but with Fulham's last seven matches all going under the 2.5 goal line and nerves around Chelsea the unders are likely to make an unwelcome return. Of the two options, I would take under 2.5 goals which certainly is the value at + 110 rather than the minus money on the over.
As I said earlier, I wouldn't rule out a Fulham win, but if I was pushed for a correct score I would probably take a 1-1 which is nice at + 700.
This looks a match that is a potential banana peel for Chelsea and regardless if they win this match or not, given their form and the pressure on the manager, the odds of -200 in a derby match on a Blues win are wrong.