A very happy New Year to all VSiN viewers and listeners of the EPL BetCast. We kick off 2021 on Saturday when Brighton host Wolves at the Amex Stadium, kick-off at 12:30 p.m. ET.
The one thing you can guarantee in this one is that it's going to be cold, with sub-zero temperatures expected in the south of England.
When the bad weather hits and a cold front arrives it usually sees goals at a premium. Since Boxing Day, there have been 18 EPL matches played and 13 of those have cashed on the under 2.5 goals market. Although, it's an obvious selection given the conditions and given that unders always cash on the BetCast my first wager in this game has to be under 2.5 goals yet again which is around the -175 mark.
I am staggered that the early money has been for the home side with Brighton being heavily bet into around the + 150 region. That price is not something that I would be interested in, as the Seagulls had just the ONE home win in the entire calendar year of 2020 and head into this one winless in their last six matches.
Wolves are hardly betting material either at + 185 and they arrive on the south coast in poor form with just a single win in their last six and three successive road defeats. No side draws more matches at half-time that Wolves and the match to be a draw after 45 minutes (a market available on BetRivers) makes appeal at around even money.
Brighton have drawn three of their last four matches and the points have been shared in seven of their last 12 matches. In December there have been 58 EPL matches played and 22 of those games ended in draws, which equates to a 38% probability (implied odds of + 162); in this clash, the draw is available at + 275, which is the biggest priced option of all three match outcomes and probably the most likely. I don't really want to commentate on another 0-0 draw on the BetCast but this is a real contender for another goalless clash, and to dampen my disappointment of calling another dire affair I will be wagering on the 0-0, which very tempting at + 700.