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Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw


Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC LV32. This has been an unusual handicapping week as I have had quite the irregular schedule, that said, my focus has been set squarely on this set of bouts for I believe there are a handful of profit opportunities that lie within this card. Let’s dig 'em out.

As is customary the article from VSiN’s magazine will appear below followed by my final releases and updated comments. Good luck tonight and enjoy the fisticuffs, grappling and ill intent!

Sandhagen -195 vs. Dillashaw 170

I’ll sidestep any wager involving a side here as I believe TJ will be privy to ‘mother’s little helper’ in some way shape or form and I believe it translates into a pretty solid performance by him. Right, wrong or indifferent my trust in the young man has been broken and I’ll need to assess him in his next bout or two before I can deliver any further commentary on the young man.

Sandhagen’s ready, he has momentum and he has physical traits that TJ has not competed against prior. For this reason, I feel that this bout goes well longer than the ‘Makers believe it does.

Over 3.5  155       Fight goes to decision 225

*half unit wagers

Phillips -280 vs. Paiva 235

Paiva will make it competitive but he’s not yet a natural Bantamweight and he’ll find the speed, power and diversity of attack too much to overcome in this short notice opportunity.

I’ve tied Phillips to last week’s parlay leg of Gamrot -210 for a potential return of + 110. For those without the first side please use Phillips in a parlay leg.

Soriano –120 vs. Allan 110

Soriano’s a Hawaiian that brings devastating punch. Allen’s weakness is that he stops strikes of any form striking with his face. Allan on the other hand is a savant ground talent that will dominate on the mat as completely as Soriano will on the feet provided, he can drag the hunky Hawaiian down for a roll. This will be a fascinating stylistic matchup but at the end of the day it is Allan whom I believe is the fighter that gets his hand raised in this one.  

Allan 110

Yanez -235 vs. Costa 200

This will be a tremendous fight. Yanez is the fighter with slick striking, deft movement and evasive defensive capability. He’s also the fighter with more experience. A relative newcomer to the UFC he’s finished his last two (ordinary) opponents via finish.

Costa arrives the man with less experience but he’ll be the physically larger fighter with a couple of inches of height advantage, three inches of reach advantage as well he’s a switch stance fighter that is always pressing forward to make the fight. Can Costa get to the counter striking slickster or will his aggression be the formula Ynez needs to further his momentum?

Costa opened + 155 so most believe that Yanez will own advantage. I come from the early Springsteen era when he states in the song, Growing up “When they said sit down, I stood up”.

Costa 200

==From PSW earlier in the week==

Last week favorites ran 7-3 in UFC LV31 while Insight the Octagon’s release of Miesha Tate -125 won via finish, pushing profitability up over the + 10-units mark thus far in 2021. In our update on Friday, Mateusz Gamrot -220 was released as the first leg of a two-fighter parlay. I’ll use the second leg of that parlay in my best bet below.

This week I’ll again submit to VSiN a final Insight the Octagon release column Friday for publication before Saturday’s 1 p.m. PT opening bell.


Bantamweight (135 pounds) Main Event

Former bantamweight champion Dillashaw lost his opportunity to be a two-division king when he was drubbed by Henry Cejudo in a flyweight (125 pounds) bout in January of 2019. In the pre- and post-fight drug screens, Dillashaw tested hotter than Chernobyl when doping tests were read.

Dillashaw is decorated in Muay Thai and BJJ to supplement his world-class wrestling base. He looked dominant on his path to the bantamweight title he won in 2017. He’s an elite wrestler with great athleticism, cardio and striking.

Dillashaw has the tools to bully, smother and press Sandhagen, which is how he’ll have to defeat him, but it won’t be easy considering Sandhagen is the No. 2-ranked bantamweight.

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