Last week’s UFC 259 was an outstanding 15-fight slate that was marred by the disqualification of Petr Yan against Aljamain Sterling in the bantamweight championship bout. I had released Sterling as a best bet for the evening, and while the final result was a + 120 deposit, the final grade on my actual handicapping for that bout grades a D-.
Wagering on sporting events requires investors live and die with the results as graded by the sport first, then by the rules of the sportsbook second. In this case what is important to understand is that my results show a profit, but in all honesty my handicapping was unsatisfactory. Yan was not only going to beat Sterling, he was probably going to finish him.
I’ve rarely discussed bad beats we’ve dealt with here at “Insight the Octagon” because this is a bottom-line business. I record the final result, then move forward because the nature of gambling is such that unusual beats/wins are bound to occur.
When one loses by some terrible circumstance, it’s important to understand that the wager may have lost, but if the handicapping process was correct, the bettor should remain confident in their “process” because in the long run “process” is sustainable while luck is not.
For a situation like Yan vs. Sterling, the lesson learned is that while I enhance my bottom line with a + 120 deposit, the overall handicap of the event was simply awful. Yan lesson learned is this: Know the rules!
Good fortune was on my side last week. The single point of focus now is to refine the process because it will take sound, effective handicapping to deliver a profitable result in 2021, not luck.