UFC 262 will feature a rare situation in which one fighter has only one promotional appearance, offering very little statistical insight. Former Bellator champ Michael Chandler ran through Dan Hooker in his UFC debut, requiring one big punch to drop Hooker for a first-round finish. Chandler is now competing for the lightweight title against an opponent who could go on to log more octagon time than anyone else if he continues at his current rate. That’s because Charles Oliveria joined the UFC in 2010, competing 27 times and earning 16 bonuses since. And he’s only 31.
The difference in sample size is extreme, and there’s no way to make a data-driven prediction of the main event given the brevity of Chandler’s UFC tenure. At a minimum, it will be a better test of Chandler’s standing in the division than his layup debut. However, Oliveira’s sizable winning streak is arguably more impressive than the names on it.
With a solid wrestling base, Chandler could thwart Oliveira’s submission game. And Chandler’s style mash-up with powerful striking could be the ideal combination to add another title to his resume. But we’ll look elsewhere on the main card for better value.