The biggest match in European club football takes place on Saturday, when Manchester City host Chelsea in the Champions League Final from Portugal’s Estádio do Dragao (kick-off 3 p.m. ET).
This will be the eighth time that two teams from the same country will competed for this biggest prize in European football and the majority of previous same-country finals have been very close affairs.
Five of those last seven have seen under 2.5 goals cash, including the last all-Premier League final two years ago when Liverpool beat Tottenham; the first all-English final saw Chelsea draw 1-1 with Man United before winning on penalties.
There has been a move in the build up to this match for over on the goals markets, but I disagree with the money and under 2.5 goals in a huge match where nerves will play a big part is my best play at -150.
This is the biggest match in Manchester City’s history and this is the prize that owner Sheikh Mansour has wanted since he bought the club in 2008; his side are -110 to lift the famous trophy inside regular time.
If you are new to betting on soccer, a warning that all bets are placed on the result after regular time -- if you want to bet Man City to win the trophy by a win in regular time, after extra time or penalties you need to bet on them to win the cup rather than win the match, which is -200.
I believe that this is going to be a nervy and tense final and one that could go all the way to a penalty shoot-out like the Europa League final did on Wednesday night. The best option on the match betting is to take the draw after 90 minutes which looks like a nice price at + 340.
It’s no surprise to see all the low-scoring correct scores high up in the betting lists and I can’t disagree with the bookies making a 1-1 draw after 90-minutes the most likely score line at + 550.
The two sides have met three times already this season: A win for Man City at Stamford Bridge, a win for Chelsea at the Etihad and Chelsea won a Wembley FA Cup semi-final last month. With Chelsea holding a 2-1 advantage, some might be tempted by the + 350 on Thomas Tuchel’s side, but I wouldn’t fall into that trap.
There is a lot of world-class talent on show, but this match might come down to a set piece or a penalty kick and on the goal-scorer markets Chelsea’s Jorginho looks appealing at + 550 to score at anytime in the 90 minutes.
The Italian is Chelsea’s top goal scorer this season with eight goals all from penalties and the 2-1 on a prop market that a penalty will be awarded in the final looks interesting. Another prop I like is the 8-1 on Manchester City and England midfielder Phil Foden to be named man of the match.
Foden is coming into some form and maturing as a player every time he takes to the pitch, and this is his big stage to shine ahead of this summer’s European championships. I am expecting him to grab the opportunity.