It’s Week 3 in the Premier League and it's also a big week for VSiN as we launch our first EPL BetCast commentary with the first match coming live this Sunday from the Tottenham Stadium when Spurs host Newcastle in what promises to be an entertaining matchup.
Below is my breakdown of that game, along with a few others where I think there is betting value.
Tottenham vs. Newcastle, Sunday 9 a.m. ET
Tottenham -210/Newcastle + 650/Draw + 365
Jose Mourinho's team comes in off arguably their best performance under the former Chelsea and Real Madrid boss with a fantastic 5-2 comeback win last weekend at Southampton. It's not a surprise to anyone who watched that performance to see them installed as favorite of around -225 at most books.
Many will consider the home side as the weekend bankers on the EPL sheets, but they have just played a very tough Europa League tie in midweek needing the help of stars Harry Kane and Son Hueung-min to get them past minnows Shkendija 3-1. The long flight back from North Macedonia and then a quick turnaround for this match is far from ideal preparation, and at the current price I would avoid the temptation of a play on the home side on the moneyline. The record of teams that have had to play in the Europa League on a Thursday and then play in the EPL on the Sunday isn’t very good, but the big problem in this one is can we make a case for Newcastle to pull off a 650 win?
Newcastle won this fixture 1-0 last season and they are 1600 to win by that scoreline again. Judging by last week's embarrassing 3-0 home loss against Brighton, there is little-to-no chance of that happening again, especially as manager Steve Bruce has a big list of injuries to contend with.
So if we can't bet Tottenham and we can't see an upset on Newcastle, how do we cash in this one?
Tottenham have looked superb in offense, but their defense is looking extremely vulnerable, conceding in every match so far this season. I believe that Newcastle -- a better road side than home side -- will continue that streak by scoring in this matchup. Tottenham have brought in some new summer signings into their defense but it will take some time for them to jell. The good news for Spurs' fans is that although they have conceded, they have hit the back of the net 10 times in their last three matches. My "lean" in this one is for both teams to score which is available at a general -110.
Newcastle were really bad last week vs. Brighton and although it was League Two opposition, they did bounce back in some style with a 7-0 road win at Morecambe in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. With 44 goals scored in the Premier League last weekend and eight of the 10 matches cashing on the over 2.5 goal line, the -137 on over in this game looks tempting.
I do believe that Tottenham have enough quality to win this and the boost of Gareth Bale returning seems to have given the team a morale lift, but I really couldn't bet them at -225 but at 1200 on a 3-1 Tottenham victory that would be my idea of the correct score. Hopefully, we’ll be cashing lots of tickets in-play during the VSiN BetCast.
Other matches
Sheffield United vs. Leeds, Sunday 7 a.m. ET
Sheffield + 175/Leeds + 170/Draw + 245
As I told Mitch and Pauly on "Follow The Money" on Thursday, this week’s EPL fixtures look a very, very tough card for wagering and I will not be having any "official" plays. I do have two leans and my first is in the Yorkshire derby where Sheffield United host Premier League newbies Leeds.
I have been really impressed with Leeds so far this season. They went to the champions Liverpool and had more shots, more possession but went down narrowly 4-3 after a last minute Liverpool penalty-kick winner. Last weekend they continued their swagger with a 4-3 home win, this time against Fulham. With seven goals scored and seven goals conceded in just two games, Marcelo Bielsa's side will certainly entertain this season.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about Sheffield United. The Blades outperformed last campaign but since the re-start their performance data has gone backwards and they ended last season with a whimper and have started this one in a similar fashion. United have lost both their matches and most concerningly have failed to score a goal. With Leeds full on confidence and scoring goals for fun, I have to "lean" towards the visitors at 170.
West Ham vs. Wolverhampton, Sunday 2 p.m. ET
West Ham + 280/Wolverhampton + 112/Draw + 245
West Ham are another EPL club on a downward spiral and they can be opposed on Sunday evening when they host Wolves.
The Hammers have big problems both on and off the pitch. Their results have been very poor and players plus manager David Moyes tested positive for Covid-19 in midweek and will not feature in this match. Wolves have won this fixture in the last two years without conceding and although they lost their last EPL start at home to Manchester City, they should be too strong for a West Ham side full of problems. If you can get any plus money, they are worth a small investment.