Unlike the American League Wild-Card round, which started yesterday, there is very little value to be had on the National League side. Lines appear to be set quite fairly, but we still squeeze a bit of value out of them, and I’ve unearthed a long-shot league-winner bet that’s worth placing.
Series bets I like
San Diego Padres (-210) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+ 176)
The series prices are all set quite fairly, but if I was going to pick one to bet on, it would likely be the Cardinals here. The NL Wild Card starting a day later than the American League may be something of a blessing in disguise for a team that was extremely tired and struggling down the stretch. Because of their COVID-19 outbreak in August, the team was afforded just two days off the entire month of September and played seven double-headers. Two days between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs isn’t enormous, but when it’s equal to all the time off the team had for the entire month prior, it’s bound to help a bit. Still, the fatigue could linger, and it’s so unprecedented and extremely difficult to account for mathematically. That could make the Cardinals a bit worse than my projections think, but there’s also the potential to gain some extra edge on the other side.