We can joke all we want about the NFC Least (5-18-1 combined with three of those wins coming against each other, so 2-15-1 against everyone else), but we’re still going to be watching (and betting) the Giants visiting the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, right?
The Eagles are 1-4-1 and just half a game behind the 2-4 Cowboys while the Giants (barely) picked up their first win, 20-19, over Washington, but are only one game back. So, while it won’t be football at its highest level, we should still see a competitive game tonight (8:20 p.m., FOX).
Last week’s advance line for this game was as high as Eagles -7 and was down as low as -3.5 earlier this week, but is now on the way back up and was mostly Eagles -4.5 as of this writing on Thursday morning. We believe it’s moving back in the right direction, as we think the Eagles are the right side off their upset of the 49ers last week and then covering in a 30-28 loss vs. the Ravens this past Sunday.
If you still want to back the Giants, we don’t put too much stock into the win over the Football Team from Washington (hey, has anyone else mentioned that Steve Spurrier, the “Head Ball Coach” should come back to coach the Football Team?), but they were also more competitive than expected in earlier losses to the Bears, Rams and Cowboys. However, we could recommend waiting to see if the line goes even higher before kickoff.
Having said all that, the better bet looks like the Under. Like the spread, the Over/Under opened higher at 45 at most books and early sharp money bet it down as low as 43.5 but now it’s back up to 45 as of Wednesday afternoon. We believe the early money was correct, especially due to our original point that these players still believe they have a chance for a playoff spot and should be giving a top effort.
The Giants’ offense is only averaging 16.8 points per game while the Eagles are averaging 23.5. Granted, the Giants are allowing 25.3 PPG while the Eagles are giving up 29.2, but those are skewed by the Cowboys and 49ers piling up 37 and 36 points, respectively, on the Giants while the Eagles gave up 38 to the Steelers and 30 to the Ravens.
Neither of these two offenses are as explosive as any of those teams, plus Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz have both thrown more INTs than TD passes. In fact, we think the only thing that could cause this game to go Over the total is if the QBs turn the ball over and we get the defenses scoring a TD on a scoop-and-scores or a pick-six, setting up the other team’s offense with short fields.
Again, wait to see if the public bets this higher.
The pick: Under 45