Best bets for Colts-Titans on Thursday Night Football


Injuries to the San Francisco 49ers deprived us of a great Thursday Night Football matchup last week, but we get one tonight with the Tennessee Titans (6-2 and leading the AFC South) hosting the Indianapolis Colts (5-3).

The Titans are led, of course, by the balanced offense of QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. The last time we saw them in prime-time, they ran over the Buffalo Bills 42-16 on Tuesday, Oct. 13. The Colts have closed the gap with QB Phillip Rivers, though most of the credit goes to the No. 1-ranked Indy defense (allowing just 290 yards per game). 

The majority of NFL bettors were losers in Week 9, but the ones who did OK were those with teasers in their portfolios.

There were six “advantage teasers” -- meaning those that move the spread 6 points in your favor and capture the key numbers of 3 and 7 -- and they went 5-1. This week, we have another strong batch of teasers starting with the Colts up to 8.


The optimum strategy would be to start your teasers Thursday night with Colts + 8 and tie with the advantage teasers on Sunday: Steelers teased down to -1.5 vs. Bengals (assuming it gets put back on the betting boards at Steelers -7.5 by kickoff), Texans teased up to + 9 at Browns, Bills teased up to + 7.5 at Cardinals, Seahawks teased up to + 7.5 at Rams, Ravens teased down to -1 at Patriots, Chargers teased up to + 8.5 at Dolphins and Bears + 8.5 vs. Vikings. I usually stick to two- or three-team teasers, so mix and match depending on your own handicapping of those other games.


If you don’t have the patience and want to contain your action to Thursday night, the play would be to combine the Colts 8 with the Under teased up to 54.5 or 55. Sharp money has already driven the betting total down from 50.5 to 48.5 at some books with others holding the line at 49. Part of this is probably due to the fact that Unders are 18-9 ATS (67%) so far this season in prime-time games. Unders are 3-1 in the last four TNF games with the lone Over being last week when the 49ers scored a garbage TD with :04 left (and it still stayed Under if you had teased it).


Pick: Colts teased up to + 8 with Under 54.5 or better (or with other advantage teasers on Sunday).


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A Numbers Game: Keep an eye out for diminishing returns on teams that you were high on at the beginning of the season like the Colts. Know when to sell on these teams.

Follow The Money: QB play is down in the NFL, according to Michael Lombardi. Worth looking at more Unders until it changes.

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Tim Murray: Florida -10 vs Mizzou

Dave Tuley: Texans +7 at Jaguars

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