Best bets for Bills-Chiefs Week 5 game

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome, DraftKings Sportsbook customers. 

Below is your betting preview for the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs game this Sunday.  This is just a sample of the 24/7 insights and analysis provided by VSiN, The Sports Betting Network. 

Enjoy your 10-day free trial of our all-access content, and good luck with your bets this weekend!

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 57)

Market report from Vegas bookmaker Chris Andrews:  

Other stores opened Kansas City -3 early and got hit with Buffalo money. I had planned on opening below a field goal anyway, and posted KC -2.5. I think this game should be closer to pick-em. I only gave slight home-field advantage to the Chiefs after watching their defense struggle at Arrowhead agsinst the offenses of Cleveland and the Los Angeles Chargers. Not much betting out of the gate.

If sharps take the Bills, I’ll come down even lower. Should the public bet the Chiefs hard all week at what “seems” like a cheap price, fine by me. I wouldn’t mind getting the Bills 3 (or more) with the 11-10 also in my favor. I think this line will sit below a field goal at kickoff Sunday night. No early betting on my opening total of 57.

You can find the latest lines or bet on this game with the DraftKings Sportsbook

Youmans: A mysterious season-opening loss to the Steelers is all but forgotten in the Bills’ rear-view mirror. Buffalo has bulldozed three weak opponents (Dolphins, Washington, Texans) with serious defensive and quarterback problems, so facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be a big step up in class. Kansas City obviously has defensive issues, but I doubt Josh Allen’s ability to match Mahomes shot for shot in a shootout. Mahomes dissected the Buffalo defense for 325 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 38-24 win in last season’s AFC title game. The price on the Chiefs at home is rarely this cheap.

Pick: Chiefs -2.5

You can find the latest lines or bet on this game with the DraftKings Sportsbook

Hill: I like the under here and will bet it … just not yet. I believe these high-profile teams and two MVP candidate quarterbacks will draw plenty of “Over” money, especially late Sunday as it’s the standalone game in primetime, and the last game of the day. The Bills are allowing a league-best 4.0 YPP on defense, but it is their approach that makes the under so appealing for me in this one. These two teams played in Week 6 last year, and Bills coach Sean McDermott made no secret of the fact that his “two-deep safety” tactic on defense was the way to contain the Chiefs. He even commented after the game that despite the loss, the game plan was one he would duplicate if given another opportunity. The Bills coaxed the Chiefs into 46 (!!) rushing attempts for 245 yards. While the Chiefs moved the ball at will, they were held to just 26 points. 

When they met in the AFC Championship Game last January, Patrick Mahomes threw for 325 yards and the Chiefs ran it just 25 times, piling up 38 points en route to a runaway victory. With Mahomes being more turnover-prone this year (4 INTs), I look for the Bills to back off, dare the Chiefs to run the ball and use long, time-consuming drives, hoping Mahomes gets impatient and forces a throw at some point. I expect Buffalo’s approach to be similar to the Week 6 matchup last year, which ended with a 26-17 final. Wait, as you’re likely to get the better of the number closer to kickoff, but take the under.

PickUnder 56.5

You can find the latest lines or bet on this game with the DraftKings Sportsbook

Burke: How much does strength of schedule matter in the NFL when it comes to the next game on the docket? Maybe we’ll find out this Sunday when the Bills and Chiefs come together. The Bills have played teams with a collective record of 5-11 in the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington and Texans. The Chiefs have played three likely playoff teams in the Browns, Ravens and Chargers, and also an Eagles team that was a clear step down in class.

The Bills have looked the part since that season-opening loss to the Steelers, outscoring the opposition 118-21. That also brings into question whether or not you can punish a team for its schedule with that level of dominance. The offensive numbers aren’t a huge surprise with at least 35 points in three straight games. The defensive numbers are what we should probably take with a grain of salt.

In those last three games, the Bills have forced 11 turnovers and have only turned the ball over once. It is easy to blow out opponents with that kind of disparity. The Chiefs have seven turnovers already, as they’ve struggled to take care of the ball. They still lead the league in points per drive and are second in total points. The turnover margin could simply be what decides this game.

The Chiefs’ offense has never been the worry. The defense, though, is a concern. Kansas City has allowed at least 29 points in every game and the most points per drive in the NFL. The task at hand doesn’t get any easier facing the Buffalo offense.

Without the turnovers, Kansas City’s offense would be performing at an even more elite level. We don’t really know how good the Bills defense is. We know Kansas City’s is not great, but the Chiefs should get Frank Clark and Charvarius Ward back this week.

We haven’t seen this type of line on KC in the Mahomes era very often. Buffalo is a good team, but -2.5 looks a little bit cheap here on the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs -2.5

You can find the latest lines or bet on this game with the DraftKings Sportsbook

Brown: Buffalo’s offense appears to be fully back to its 2020 form after looking lost in its first game of the season. The only thing that hasn’t returned fully is Allen’s passing touchdowns. He has failed to eclipse his prop number in three of four games to start the season.

The obvious reason is that Allen hasn’t had the game script to continue throwing, as he easily could have thrown over 2.5 passing touchdowns against the Dolphins and Texans if necessary. There are no game script concerns for Allen on Sunday night, as everyone projects a back-and-forth shootout with Mahomes and the Kansas City offense.

Allen should clear this prop hurdle easily given the Bills’ offense leads the league in early-down pass rate over expectation. At a 145 price, this looks like the ideal target to bet on Sunday Night Football. 

Pick: Josh Allen Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns ( 145)

You can find the latest lines or bet on this game with the DraftKings Sportsbook

Tuley: I’ll be contrarian here. I love Mahomes as much as the next football fan, but I’m not so sure the right team is favored here. The oddsmakers obviously have to stick with their power ratings and also the public’s desire to bet the Chiefs, but Allen and the Bills’ offense (No. 5 in yards per game) is playing just as well if not better than the Chiefs (No. 2 in yards per game, but committing too many turnovers) so far this season and the defense (with two shutouts and ranking No. 1 in yards allowed per game with the Chiefs ranking No. 31) is far superior. But, hey, we’ll take any points they’re willing to give us.

Pick: Bills 2.5, use Bills 8.5 in six-point teasers

You can find the latest lines or bet on this game with the DraftKings Sportsbook

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