Battle of overrated teams continues at Yankee Stadium

April 17, 2019 12:40 AM

Last season, Red Sox/Yankees would have been an electric Wednesday Night Baseball attraction (ESPN, 6:30 p.m.) In mid-April of 2019, it features the two biggest disappointments of the new campaign using betting market standards.

How you’re priced defines how you’re “rated” by a composite of informed influences (mostly oddsmakers and sharps). Nobody’s been more overrated this season than the Red Sox and Yanks. Both entered their short two-game series down double digits in betting units.

Injury-riddled New York has dropped five different games as favorites of -190 or more on the money line (two in the 190-195 vicinity vs. the Chicago White Sox, one at -200 to Detroit, one at -300 and another at -380 to lowly Baltimore). That plus a three-game sweep down in Houston (outscored 18-12) will keep backers of the Bronx Bombers out of the black for awhile. (And…heads up…a brutal three-week schedule stretch begins Monday.)

Unprepared Boston bled red ink early, opening the season losing eight of its first 10 games on a road trip to Seattle, Oakland, and Arizona. Then, with a chance to make up lost ground at home against struggling Toronto and Baltimore, the Sox could only split six games. All three losses came with Boston priced as favorites near -250. For bettors, that’s not a 3-3 home record, but a mark of three wins and 7.5 losses. 

For fans of the Yankees and Red Sox, this isn’t a month to bet on bounce backs…or to bet on the due theory…or to assume neither team can lose three or more in a row. And, you sure don’t want to include either in money line parlays that “lower the juice” by spreading risk across multiple big favorites. These two teams alone have obliterated the bankrolls of bettors using that ill-advised shortcut. 

What’s the best betting approach for Yankees fans right now? Wait! It’s a long season.The team has battled injuries from the outset, and is still a long way from being healthy. There’s no rule that you have to bet your favorite team whenever they play. In the meantime, look for potential edges on Over/Unders or for available proposition bets like Yes/No for first inning runs. You can place bets on Yankees games without betting the Yankees. 

If you’re focused on finances rather than fandom, this is a team you should look to fade until money lines better match reality. 

The Yankees are still being priced as a championship contender on a daily basis with starting lineups that aren’t worthy of that much respect. Yes, some big names are still there. But you just saw at the Stadium last weekend that a mix of stars and backups couldn’t take two of three from an unimpressive also-ran like the Chicago White Sox. The Yanks were outscored 14-12 in games started by J.A. Happ, C.C. Sabathia, and Masahiro Tanaka. 

Patience is a virtue, especially when it comes to action-minded fans of an overpriced favorite.

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