Last year at this time, Los Angeles had Super Bowl fever. The Rams were two-point underdogs against the New England Patriots in what was projected to be a shootout featuring an Over/Under of 55.5.
Little went as expected. The Rams mustered only three points in a desultory 10-point defeat. Bettors making the trip to Nevada lost a lot of money. It was an awful result, with the team and its players failing to even approach most prop-bet targets in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever.
Super Bowl LIV matches the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in Miami. It shapes up as an entertaining betting attraction for fans wanting to travel to Las Vegas to experience the greatest spectacle in sports wagering.
VSiN’s midweek market report:
— Team side tendencies have been very clear. Kansas City draws strong interest at -1 or less. San Francisco shows support at + 1.5 and would get even more if + 2 becomes available before kickoff. Recreational bettors generally prefer favorites, which could lift the line. No key numbers are creating meaningful line value in the relative dead zone near pick-’em. Super Bowls can’t end in a tie. No favorite has ever won by exactly one point. No entry has ever won by exactly two points. Barring a weekend injury or illness to a key player, the market window looks tight.
— Over/Under betting has settled down after strong early interest on the Over. Stores that went up at 52 or 53 were flooded with Over bets. Unders didn’t show until a few sportsbooks tested 55. Sunday’s projected shootout is likely to close between 54 and 55 unless a bandwagon effect develops from recreational bettors wanting to root for points.
— Prop options are way too numerous to list. If you’re traveling to Nevada this weekend, remember that value on props has typically been gobbled up already by sharps. Be picky. Focus on your strongest opinions.