Army vs. Navy and bowls college football power rankings and game spreads

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

December 5, 2022 01:27 PM
USATSI_19555632

Week 15 Power Rankings, Ratings and Odds

Bowl season is an altogether different beast. It is a remarkably unique subset of not only college football games, but of games across the entire world of sports. Motivation will be an angle talked about a lot, but we’re also going to have a lot of key players that opt out with an eye towards the NFL Draft or opt out because they’re looking to hit the transfer portal.

We’ve also got all sorts of coaches either leaving interims in charge or coaching with more than one foot out the door. We also have coordinators on the move that are taking the same position elsewhere or are being elevated to head coach at another program. There are so many intangible factors that come into play during the bowl season and you have to try and keep up with so much news.

I still put together power ratings for the bowl games, but they carry a lot less weight for me than they do during the regular season. Obviously there are all of the considerations listed above, but also you have teams stepping out of conference for the first time since September in some cases. You have huge strength of schedule mismatches. You have teams that simply recruit at a far higher level than others. You also have no familiarity or track record between the programs to know how they match up.

However, I do believe that, in spite of it all, the bowl season offers some of the best betting opportunities of the season. Everything that we do in gambling is an educated guess and your degree of confidence is based on how much of an education you’ve given yourself on the game. Bowl season features more leaps of faith, but all of these factors create a lot of uncertainty and successful bettors love uncertainty. They love a market that is inefficient. They love a market that will vary greatly in the lead-up to the game.

Think about it. We’ve got lines on bowl games that are out two, three or four weeks in advance of the game. A lot can happen in that timeframe. Limits progressively increase on the games as they get closer, so established, influential bettors can manipulate and massage lines to get them where they want by the time the highest limits are being offered. It is a fascinating time of the year to say the least.

Here are the bowl games and my lines on them:

Date

Away

Home

My Line

12/10

Navy

Army (in Philly)

+2

 

Date

Bowl

Away

Home

My Line

12/16

Bahamas

Miami (OH)

UAB

-13.5

 

Cure (Orlando)

Troy

UTSA

-5.5

         

12/17

Fenway (Boston)

Louisville

Cincinnati

+4

 

New Mexico (Alb’que)

BYU

SMU

+2

 

LA Bowl

Fresno State

Washington State

-4

 

LendingTree (Mobile)

Rice

Southern Miss

-7

 

Las Vegas

Florida

Oregon State

-8.5

 

Frisco (TX)

Boise State

North Texas

+7

         

12/19

Myrtle Beach

UConn

Marshall

-13

         

12/20

Potato (Boise)

Eastern Michigan

San Jose State

-10.5

 

Boca Raton

Toledo

Liberty

+6.5

         

12/21

New Orleans

South Alabama

Western Kentucky

+6.5

         

12/22

Armed Forces (Ft Worth)

Air Force

Baylor

-11.5

         

12/23

Gasparilla (Tampa)

Wake Forest

Missouri

-1

 

Independence (Shreveport)

Houston

Louisiana

+6

         

12/24

Hawaii

Middle Tennessee

San Diego State

-8

         

12/26

Quick Lane (Detroit)

New Mexico State

Bowling Green

-2

         

12/27

Camellia (Montgomery)

Georgia Southern

Buffalo

+8.5

 

First Responder (Dallas)

Utah State

Memphis

-7.5

 

Birmingham

East Carolina

Coastal Carolina

+8 (+3 w/ McCall)

 

Guaranteed Rate (Phoenix)

Oklahoma State

Wisconsin

-3

         

12/28

Military (Annapolis)

UCF

Duke

+1.5

 

Liberty (Memphis)

Kansas

Arkansas

-6

 

Holiday (San Diego)

North Carolina

Oregon

-11

 

Texas (Houston)

Ole Miss

Texas Tech

+4

         

12/29

Pinstripe (Bronx)

Minnesota

Syracuse

+7.5

 

Cheez-It (Orlando)

Oklahoma

Florida State

-8.5

 

Alamo (San Antonio)

Washington

Texas

-2.5

         

12/30

Duke’s Mayo (Charlotte)

Maryland

NC State

-2

 

Sun (El Paso)

Pitt

UCLA

-8.5

 

Gator (Jacksonville)

South Carolina

Notre Dame

-6

 

Arizona (Tucson)

Wyoming

Ohio

PK

 

Orange (Miami)

Clemson

Tennessee

+4.5

         

12/31

Music City (Nashville)

Iowa

Kentucky

-6.5

 

Sugar (NOLA)

Kansas State

Alabama (w/ Young)

-7.5

 

Peach (CFP Semi - Atlanta)

Ohio State

Georgia

-6.5

 

Fiesta (CFP Semi - Glendale)

TCU

Michigan

-9

         

1/2

ReliaQuest (Tampa)

Mississippi State

Illinois

+2.5

 

Cotton (Arlington)

Tulane

USC (w/ Williams)

-5 (+1 w/out)

 

Citrus (Orlando)

Purdue

LSU

-10.5

 

Rose (Pasadena)

Utah

Penn State

+3.5

         

1/9

CFP NCG (Inglewood)

TBD

TBD

 

Here are my Week 15 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Michigan +1, Georgia +1,Troy +2, UTSA +2, Clemson +4, Kansas State +1, Fresno State +1, New Mexico State +5.5, Tulane +4, UConn +2, UCF +2

Down: Buffalo -1.5, TCU -1, North Carolina -2, Toledo -2, Alabama -1, Ohio -1.5, Texas -2, Marshall -2, Louisville -3, Florida -7 (Richardson, other opt outs), Western Kentucky -6 (Reed transfer), Bowling Green -3, Tennessee -4, USC -3

Injury: Coastal Carolina +5 (if McCall plays), USC -6 (without Williams)

Some notes on the movers:

Florida -7: QB Anthony Richardson is going to the NFL. Other players have opted out. Clearly the Gators are excited to play in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Western Kentucky -6: Austin Reed is in the transfer portal. That’s a substantial loss for WKU. Six points probably isn’t even enough, as he’s a top-five passer nationally.

Clemson +4: Cade Klubnik is significantly better than DJ Uiagalelei and I have to think that the rest of the team feeds off of the long overdue QB change. Frankly, this may not be a big enough adjustment going into an interesting matchup against a Tennessee team without Hendon Hooker in the Orange Bowl.

Tulane +4: I feel like the Green Wave were a bit overrated as a market darling throughout the season, but I’ll give them credit for the body of work. I know they beat a really good Kansas State team, but I do believe the AAC was down a good amount this season. But, late credit is better than no credit at all.

Tennessee -4: I guess I hadn’t adjusted Tennessee enough because my line was way off-market against Clemson. Even with a big adjustment to Clemson with Klubnik, I had this game right around a pick ‘em. For what it’s worth, I don’t think Tennessee is a ruined team and Joe Milton could surprise with plenty of prep time.

North Carolina -3: What the hell happened to the Tar Heels at the end of the season? Drake Maye’s last three games: 71-of-121 (58.7%), 703 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT. UNC lost to Clemson by 29, NC State by 3 in 2OT and Georgia Tech by 4.

Louisville -3: So, Scott Satterfield jumped from Louisville to Cincinnati, which is fascinating given that the two programs play each other in the Fenway Bowl. Can’t be a good thing for Louisville that their old coach with recruiting incentive and a move to the Big 12 coming in July went to their bowl game opponent.

New Mexico State +2.5: Jerry Kill is killin’ it in Las Cruces. The Aggies played Valparaiso, so, yes, take it with a grain of salt, but they racked up almost 12 yards per play in the 65-3 win to emphatically get to six wins (they were in a bowl game anyway).

NOTE: I’m not going to update my Power Ratings based on opt outs or anything like that going forward. It’s a lot to keep up with and a minimal return. I will note the opt outs accordingly in the game previews that I write for the bowl games.

Here are my final Power Ratings for the 2022 season:

 

Rank Team Conference PR HFA
1 Georgia SEC 98 3.5
2 Michigan Big Ten 92.5 3
3 Ohio State Big Ten 91.5 3.5
4 Alabama SEC 91 3.5
5 Utah Pac-12 84 3.5
6 Florida State ACC 83.5 2
7 Kansas State Big 12 83.5 2
8 TCU Big 12 83.5 2
9 Texas Big 12 83.5 2
10 Clemson ACC 83 3.5
11 LSU SEC 81.5 2.5
12 Oregon Pac-12 81 3
13 USC Pac-12 81 2
14 Washington Pac-12 81 2
15 Penn State Big Ten 80.5 2.5
16 UCLA Pac-12 80 2
17 Ole Miss SEC 79 2
18 Notre Dame Independent 78.5 3.5
19 Tennessee SEC 78.5 2.5
20 Baylor Big 12 78 2
21 Mississippi State SEC 78 2.5
22 Oregon State Pac-12 78 2
23 Arkansas SEC 77 2
24 Kentucky SEC 76 2
25 Tulane AAC 76 3
26 Illinois Big Ten 75.5 1.5
27 Washington State Pac-12 75.5 3
28 Oklahoma Big 12 75 3.5
29 Texas Tech Big 12 75 2
30 Minnesota Big Ten 74 2
31 Missouri SEC 74 2.5
32 UTSA Conference USA 74 2
33 Auburn SEC 73.5 3
34 Iowa State Big 12 73.5 2.5
35 Wake Forest ACC 73 2.5
36 South Carolina SEC 72.5 2
37 Wisconsin Big Ten 72.5 2
38 NC State ACC 72 3
39 Fresno State Mountain West 71.5 2.5
40 Pitt ACC 71.5 2
41 UCF AAC 71.5 3.5
42 Boise State Mountain West 71 2.5
43 Kansas Big 12 71 1
44 Purdue Big Ten 71 2
45 Louisville ACC 70.5 2
46 BYU Independent 70 2
47 Duke ACC 70 2
48 Maryland Big Ten 70 2
49 North Carolina ACC 70 2
50 Appalachian State Sun Belt 69.5 3.5
51 Florida SEC 69.5 3
52 Iowa Big Ten 69.5 3
53 James Madison Sun Belt 69.5 2
54 Oklahoma State Big 12 69.5 3
55 Houston AAC 69 2
56 South Alabama Sun Belt 69 2
57 Troy Sun Belt 68.5 2
58 West Virginia Big 12 68.5 2.5
59 California Pac-12 68 2
60 East Carolina AAC 68 1.5
61 SMU AAC 68 3.5
62 Arizona State Pac-12 67.5 2.5
63 Marshall Sun Belt 67.5 2
64 Memphis AAC 67.5 3.5
65 Texas A&M SEC 67 3.5
66 UAB Conference USA 67 3.5
67 Air Force Mountain West 66.5 2.5
68 Cincinnati AAC 66.5 3.5
69 Syracuse ACC 66.5 2
70 Georgia State Sun Belt 66 2
71 Michigan State Big Ten 66 2
72 Arizona Pac-12 65.5 2
73 Toledo MAC 64.5 2.5
74 Vanderbilt SEC 64.5 1
75 Georgia Tech ACC 64 2
76 North Texas Conference USA 64 2
77 Navy AAC 63.5 2
78 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 63 2.5
79 Louisiana Sun Belt 63 3
80 Nebraska Big Ten 63 1.5
81 San Jose State Mountain West 63 2
82 San Diego State Mountain West 62.5 2
83 Western Kentucky Conference USA 62.5 2
84 Army Independent 61.5 3
85 Southern Miss Sun Belt 61.5 2
86 Stanford Pac-12 61.5 2
87 Virginia ACC 61 3
88 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 60 2
89 Miami (FL) ACC 60 2.5
90 Utah State Mountain West 60 2
91 Indiana Big Ten 59 2
92 Tulsa AAC 59 2
93 UNLV Mountain West 59 1
94 Virginia Tech ACC 58.5 2
95 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 58 3
96 Ball State MAC 57.5 2
97 Kent State MAC 57.5 2.5
98 Liberty Independent 57 3.5
99 Northwestern Big Ten 57 2
100 Temple AAC 57 2
101 Old Dominion Sun Belt 56.5 2
102 Ohio MAC 56 2
103 Wyoming Mountain West 56 2.5
104 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 55 2
105 Rutgers Big Ten 55 1.5
106 Texas State Sun Belt 55 1.5
107 Buffalo MAC 54.5 3.5
108 Eastern Michigan MAC 54.5 2
109 Middle Tennessee Conference USA 54.5 2.5
110 Rice Conference USA 54.5 1
111 UConn Independent 54.5 1
112 UTEP Conference USA 54.5 1
113 Boston College ACC 54 2
114 Miami (OH) MAC 53.5 3
115 Bowling Green MAC 53 1
116 Central Michigan MAC 53 2.5
117 Colorado Pac-12 52.5 2
118 Arkansas State Sun Belt 52 2
119 Hawaii Mountain West 52 2
120 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 52 2
121 New Mexico State Independent 51 2
122 Colorado State Mountain West 50 1.5
123 Northern Illinois MAC 50 2
124 South Florida AAC 50 2
125 Western Michigan MAC 49.5 2
126 Charlotte Conference USA 48.5 2
127 Akron MAC 48 1
128 Nevada Mountain West 48 3
129 New Mexico Mountain West 42 1
130 UMass Independent 39 1.5
131 FIU Conference USA 35.5 2

Be on the lookout for our College Football Bowl Guide this week with some strategies and betting tips for the bowl season as a whole. In the lead-up to each individual bowl game, we will be writing previews with picks, so watch for those about three days prior to each game.

Catch Tim Murray and I on the Tuesday edition of the VSiN College Football Podcast with our initial College Football Playoff and bowl thoughts. Rate, review and subscribe.

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