Army vs. Navy and bowls college football power rankings and game spreads

Week 15 Power Rankings, Ratings and Odds

Bowl season is an altogether different beast. It is a remarkably unique subset of not only college football games, but of games across the entire world of sports. Motivation will be an angle talked about a lot, but we’re also going to have a lot of key players that opt out with an eye towards the NFL Draft or opt out because they’re looking to hit the transfer portal.

We’ve also got all sorts of coaches either leaving interims in charge or coaching with more than one foot out the door. We also have coordinators on the move that are taking the same position elsewhere or are being elevated to head coach at another program. There are so many intangible factors that come into play during the bowl season and you have to try and keep up with so much news.

I still put together power ratings for the bowl games, but they carry a lot less weight for me than they do during the regular season. Obviously there are all of the considerations listed above, but also you have teams stepping out of conference for the first time since September in some cases. You have huge strength of schedule mismatches. You have teams that simply recruit at a far higher level than others. You also have no familiarity or track record between the programs to know how they match up.

However, I do believe that, in spite of it all, the bowl season offers some of the best betting opportunities of the season. Everything that we do in gambling is an educated guess and your degree of confidence is based on how much of an education you’ve given yourself on the game. Bowl season features more leaps of faith, but all of these factors create a lot of uncertainty and successful bettors love uncertainty. They love a market that is inefficient. They love a market that will vary greatly in the lead-up to the game.

Think about it. We’ve got lines on bowl games that are out two, three or four weeks in advance of the game. A lot can happen in that timeframe. Limits progressively increase on the games as they get closer, so established, influential bettors can manipulate and massage lines to get them where they want by the time the highest limits are being offered. It is a fascinating time of the year to say the least.

Here are the bowl games and my lines on them:

Here are my Week 15 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Michigan +1, Georgia +1,Troy +2, UTSA +2, Clemson +4, Kansas State +1, Fresno State +1, New Mexico State +5.5, Tulane +4, UConn +2, UCF +2

Down: Buffalo -1.5, TCU -1, North Carolina -2, Toledo -2, Alabama -1, Ohio -1.5, Texas -2, Marshall -2, Louisville -3, Florida -7 (Richardson, other opt outs), Western Kentucky -6 (Reed transfer), Bowling Green -3, Tennessee -4, USC -3

Injury: Coastal Carolina +5 (if McCall plays), USC -6 (without Williams)

Some notes on the movers:

Florida -7: QB Anthony Richardson is going to the NFL. Other players have opted out. Clearly the Gators are excited to play in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Western Kentucky -6: Austin Reed is in the transfer portal. That’s a substantial loss for WKU. Six points probably isn’t even enough, as he’s a top-five passer nationally.

Clemson +4: Cade Klubnik is significantly better than DJ Uiagalelei and I have to think that the rest of the team feeds off of the long overdue QB change. Frankly, this may not be a big enough adjustment going into an interesting matchup against a Tennessee team without Hendon Hooker in the Orange Bowl.

Tulane +4: I feel like the Green Wave were a bit overrated as a market darling throughout the season, but I’ll give them credit for the body of work. I know they beat a really good Kansas State team, but I do believe the AAC was down a good amount this season. But, late credit is better than no credit at all.

Tennessee -4: I guess I hadn’t adjusted Tennessee enough because my line was way off-market against Clemson. Even with a big adjustment to Clemson with Klubnik, I had this game right around a pick ‘em. For what it’s worth, I don’t think Tennessee is a ruined team and Joe Milton could surprise with plenty of prep time.

North Carolina -3: What the hell happened to the Tar Heels at the end of the season? Drake Maye’s last three games: 71-of-121 (58.7%), 703 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT. UNC lost to Clemson by 29, NC State by 3 in 2OT and Georgia Tech by 4.

Louisville -3: So, Scott Satterfield jumped from Louisville to Cincinnati, which is fascinating given that the two programs play each other in the Fenway Bowl. Can’t be a good thing for Louisville that their old coach with recruiting incentive and a move to the Big 12 coming in July went to their bowl game opponent.

New Mexico State +2.5: Jerry Kill is killin’ it in Las Cruces. The Aggies played Valparaiso, so, yes, take it with a grain of salt, but they racked up almost 12 yards per play in the 65-3 win to emphatically get to six wins (they were in a bowl game anyway).

NOTE: I’m not going to update my Power Ratings based on opt outs or anything like that going forward. It’s a lot to keep up with and a minimal return. I will note the opt outs accordingly in the game previews that I write for the bowl games.

Here are my final Power Ratings for the 2022 season:

Be on the lookout for our College Football Bowl Guide this week with some strategies and betting tips for the bowl season as a whole. In the lead-up to each individual bowl game, we will be writing previews with picks, so watch for those about three days prior to each game.

Catch Tim Murray and I on the Tuesday edition of the VSiN College Football Podcast with our initial College Football Playoff and bowl thoughts. Rate, review and subscribe.