Army-Navy Sharp Report


Today the weekend kicks off with the annual Army-Navy College Football showdown, plus 7 NBA games, 12 NHL games and a full College Basketball slate.

 Let's discuss where the money is flowing for today's biggest game on the board...
3 p.m. ET: Army vs Navy
This is the 122nd matchup in the storied rivalry between Army and Navy. It will be played at MetLife Stadium, home of the Jets and Giants. The game will be played in honor of the 20th anniversary of 9/11. Army (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won four straight games, most recently beating Liberty 31-16 as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Navy (3-8 SU, 7-4 ATS) started the season 1-6 but has gone a respectable 2-2 over their past four games. Navy is coming off a 38-14 win over Temple, easily covering as 13.5-point road favorites. 
This line opened with Army listed as an 8.5-point neutral site favorite. We've seen respected money grab Navy and the points, dropping the line from 8.5 to 7. Army has outscored their opponents by an average margin of 36-23. Meanwhile, Navy has been outscored on average 30-20. Army is 4-1 against Navy over the past five games. Army won last year's matchup 15-0, which was played at West Point. Army will be heading to a Bowl Game after this. Meanwhile, this is Navy's last game of the season. 
The most intriguing part of this game from a betting perspective is the total. It opened at 36.5 and has been bet down to 35. It even touched 34 until some over buyback brought it back to 35. The under is an unbelievable 15-0 over the last 15 matchups. In fact, Military Academy matchups are notorious for going under. Since 2005, the under is 40-9 (82%) when two Military Academies face off. Why the under edge? Because Army, Navy and Air Force play a run-heavy triple option offense. Because they run the ball the vast majority of the time, they chew up the clock, which leads to long, methodical drives, fewer possessions and less scoring. 
The forecast calls for low 50s with 10 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 52-27 (66%) this season. Both teams are 6-5 to the under. 
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