Sportsbooks got off to a good start in the NFL when Philadelphia covered against Tampa Bay Thursday night. But, there could be some other shoes to drop. Bets on Tampa Bay against the spread were immediate losers. But, bets on Tampa Bay in teasers or moneyline parlays could still cash through the weekend.
Let’s see how the market has been moving for Sunday and Monday action. Games are presented in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes on your schedules.
Sunday, Oct. 17
Miami (-3, 47) vs. Jacksonville (London)
Tua Tagovailoa will be back at quarterback for Miami. That hasn’t had much of an impact on the line yet. I think he’s better than the market has been giving him credit for. We’ll see. My opener of Miami -3.5 was bet down to the key number of three by sharps. I have been getting a lot of buyback on the Dolphins at the lower number. I think sharps will take Jaguars + 3.5 whenever it’s available. Note that I also took a pretty big moneyline bet on Jacksonville + 150 to win outright. Might be one of those games that jumps back and forth from 3 to 3.5. Public wants to lay the three, sharps want to take + 3.5. First bet at my opening total of 45.5 was from a sharp on the Over. I moved straight to 46.5. I got bet Over again. Now sitting at 47.
Houston at Indianapolis (-10, 43)
Really good two-way action on my opener of Indy -10. Ticket count favors the Colts, but not dramatically. It’s about 60/40, which is actually low for this kind of game. Tickets include teaser bets and parlays. The public may be more hesitant to aggressively lay a big number with Indianapolis. Houston with Davis Mills at quarterback was finally competitive last week vs. New England. My total opened 43. First bet was on the Over, so I went to 43.5. Money came back on the Under. I’m at 43. The market looks to be at one of those two numbers depending on the store. We might see this hop back and forth through the weekend.
Green Bay (-6, 44) at Chicago
I opened Green Bay -5. First bet was on Chicago. I dropped to 4.5. When media chatter about Justin Fields’ knee injury (hyperextended vs. Raiders) filled the airwaves, money drove the Packers back to -5, and then to -6. If Fields looks ready-to-go on game day, I’d expect sharps to take the Bears + 6. If not, the public will keep pounding the Packers in teasers and moneyline parlays. Ticket count is about 4-1 for Green Bay already as everyone waits to hear more about Fields. Note that wind could be an issue Sunday afternoon, with a forecast for double-digit velocity. That may be what’s driving early Under money on the total. I opened 45. Now down to 44.
Kansas City (-6.5, 54) at Washington
Kansas City went on the board at -6.5. First bet was on the Chiefs, so I went to -7. I took a lot of play on Washington plus the touchdown. So much that I had to drop back to 6.5. The public is betting Kansas City hard in teasers and moneyline parlays. My ticket count is about 11/1 on the Chiefs! Sportsbooks will be rooting for the home underdog. We know Kansas City is pretty banged up. We’ll be positioned with the sharps at either + 6.5 or + 7. And, we’ll have the 11/10 working in our favor. My opening total of 55.5 was bet down step-by-step to 54. That’s odd for a Chiefs game. Probably linked to a weather forecast for wind as well. Might be windier here than in Chicago. If you’re new to these reports, sharps pay a lot of attention to wind…because it can wreak havoc with the downfield passing game and field goal/extra point kicking. From this point through the winter, you’ll be able to predict the weather in many college and pro cities just by watching Over/Under betting.
Minnesota (-2, 46) at Carolina
Sharps were skeptical of Carolina last week when they knew star running back Christian McCaffrey was out. They were rewarded with an outright win from Philadelphia. He’s still out. Sharps took Minnesota at my opener of + 1. Then again at pick-em, and again at -1, and again at -1.5. I’m up to -2 now. No buy back to report yet on Carolina + 2, or even at + 8 in the basic strategy six-point teasers that sharps love. Maybe we’ll see more of that before kickoff. Right now, Minnesota is one of our biggest decisions. We’ll be rooting for the Panthers. Very limited betting action so far on my opening total of 46.
LA Chargers at Baltimore (-2.5, 51.5)
I opened Baltimore -3. One of my bigger players came in and took three with the Chargers. He also bet LA to win outright on the moneyline at + 140. Pretty sizable bets on both. I dropped to 2.5. I’m definitely getting bets back on the Ravens. Not nearly enough to move back to the three. In fact, I’m still taking a few bets on the Chargers at + 2.5. That suggests 2.5 will probably stick across the market through the weekend. There’s a lot of respect for the Chargers (4-1 ATS). And, everyone knows Baltimore had a short week of preparation after the MNF overtime thriller against Indianapolis. Sharps may look at the Chargers + 8.5 in two-team teasers by kickoff. Not seeing much of that yet, though. My opening total of 51.5 was bet up to 52.5. Pretty even bets since the move.
Cincinnati (-3.5, 47.5) at Detroit
More betting interest here than you might have expected. I opened Cincinnati -3.5. First sharp bet came on Detroit. I dropped to three. Customers laid it back, so I returned to 3.5. I think we’ll stick at Cincinnati -3.5 (at least). Quarterback Joe Burrow continues to mature. Detroit is coming off back-to-back divisional games (Chicago and Minnesota), which came right after a heartbreaking home loss to Baltimore. I opened the total at 48. Took one sharp bet on the Under and dropped to 47.5.
LA Rams (-8, 48.5) at the NY Giants
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a concussion last week in Dallas. Amidst uncertainty about his return, my opener of Rams -10.5 was bet up to -11. Sharps took NYG + 11. As the prognosis improved, they also took Giants + 10.5, + 10, + 9.5, and + 9. I’m down to + 8 right now. The Rams still enjoy extra preparation time off a Thursday night win at Seattle. Though, QB Matthew Stafford is dealing with a finger sprain on his throwing hand. This will be a heavily-bet game through the weekend because of the cities involved. Rams are already popular with the public in teasers and money line parlays. My opening total of 47.5 was bet up to 48.5 and 49. Took some Under money at 49, so I’m back to 48.5.
Arizona at Cleveland (-3, 49.5)
I opened Cleveland -2.5. Sharps initially laid the 2.5, and then laid Cleveland -3 after my first line move. I went to -3.5. News broke Friday that star running back Nick Chubb would miss the game for Cleveland. I took a big bet on the Cardinals at 3.5 and moved back to three. Windy conditions are expected. Running the ball could be the key to success. I’ll be watching the market very closely on this one up until kickoff. You can see the wind influence on early Over/Under betting. I opened 51. Sharps bet Under 51, Under 50.5, and Under 50. I’m down to 49.5.
Las Vegas at Denver (-4, 44)
I opened Denver -3. When news about Jon Gruden’s resignation came out, sharps laid me the three. I went to Denver -3.5. There wasn’t much betting until early Friday afternoon. Then, more money came in on Denver. I’m at Broncos -4 now. Normally we take a lot of Raiders play from the public. Not happening this week. I took a sharp Under bet at my opening total of 44.5. Down to 44 now.
Dallas (-3.5, 51) at New England
This will be a heavily bet game. I opened Dallas -4. Sharps took the four. I dropped to 3.5. Public bettors have been taking the Cowboys -3.5 here at the South Point. But, I see prices trending lower at some sharp outfits. Many stores adjust vigorish before moving the spread. We never charge more than -110 on a football point spread. The public is heavy on Dallas in moneyline parlays. I can’t see the number dropping much further. Sportsbooks will be positioned against Dallas wherever it ends up. Sharps bet Over my opening total of 49. They also bet Over 50, and Over 50.5. I moved up to 51.5, where Under money started coming in.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5, 43)
Not much betting on the team side. I made a 3.5-point adjustment for Geno Smith replacing Russell Wilson at quarterback for Seattle. Haven’t moved off my opener of Pittsburgh -5. Worth noting that the public isn’t betting Pittsburgh yet in either moneyline parlays or teasers. Recreational bettors aren’t comfortable investing in either side. There has been a lot of action on the total. Sharps bet me Over my opener of 42, and again at 42.5. I’m at 43 now writing good two-way action.
Monday, Oct. 18
Buffalo (-6, 54) at Tennessee
Another one of these. A primetime game where we will be rooting for the dog because the public is all over the favorite against the spread, in teasers, and in moneyline parlays. Worse, this game is a “bridge” to next week. The public can include Buffalo in this week’s action. Then, Monday, bet them in teasers and/or parlays with next week’s matchups. My opener of Buffalo -5 was bet up to 5.5, then six. Sharps started taking the dog at Tennessee + 6. But, the public keeps betting Buffalo every which way. More teasers than moneyline play so far. Not much action yet at my opening total of 54.
I hope you have a great betting weekend. See you again next week for more football coverage from behind the counter. Thanks again for all the great emails and tweets we’ve been receiving about these reports.
Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at the South Point in Las Vegas, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for 30 years.